Saint Etienne 0-2 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Saint Etienne host Paris FC at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Paris FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Saint Etienne) versus 1.20 (Paris FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Saint Etienne register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Paris FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Paris FC in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Saint Etienne 70% and Paris FC 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 62% | Paris FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.19 xG and Paris FC 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.204 / defence 1.328 | Paris FC attack 0.962 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.142. Data: 11 Saint Etienne games / 49 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 31% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Paris FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris FC at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 70% | Paris FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 31% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Saint Etienne 1.19 / Paris FC 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.204 / def 1.328 | Paris FC attack 0.962 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Paris FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Paris FC kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Paris FC kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Paris FC?
Saint Etienne 0 - 2 Paris FC.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Paris FC part of?
Saint Etienne vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 31% chance of winning, Paris FC a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Saint Etienne and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Paris FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Saint Etienne and Paris FC in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Paris FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (1.20) and Paris FC's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
31%
3.25
26%
3.87
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.65
1.46
Paris FC xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
7%
13.98
13%
7.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.46 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 9W 17D 24L from 50 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 13L across 50 games — 1.66 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris FC by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Saint Etienne heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 6W 8D 10L from 24 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris FC's away record stands at 10W 6D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.30 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 9W 17D 24L in their last 50 games (0.88 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 23W 14D 13L in their last 50 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.08 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Paris FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
2
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Paris FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 1, Paris FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Paris FC 0-0 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 71%, Paris FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Saint Etienne) and 42% (Paris FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Paris FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Saint Etienne's games and 54% of Paris FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 42% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Paris FC tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Saint Etienne 0-2 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.19 xG and Paris FC 1.46 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Saint Etienne fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.20 / defence 1.33 against Paris FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.81, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 31% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 43%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 62%, Paris FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Paris FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.