Rodez 1-2 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Sochaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sochaux make the trip to Stade Paul Lignon to face Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 3 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Rodez (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez at Stade Paul Lignon this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sochaux's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sochaux have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Rodez against 1.40 for Sochaux. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 3 meetings, Sochaux have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Rodez's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 0–1 with Sochaux winning.
It is worth noting that Sochaux have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Rodez — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Sochaux — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 39% versus Sochaux 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 27% | Sochaux 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.04 xG and Sochaux 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.823 / defence 1.088 | Sochaux attack 1.108 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.054. Data: 59 Rodez games / 59 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 30% | Draw 28% | Sochaux 42%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Sochaux 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sochaux as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sochaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rodez 60% | Sochaux 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 3 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 30% | Draw 28% | Sochaux 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Rodez 1.04 / Sochaux 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.823 / def 1.088 | Sochaux attack 1.108 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Sochaux xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Sochaux kick off?
Rodez vs Sochaux kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 February 2023 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Sochaux?
Rodez 1 - 2 Sochaux.
Where is Rodez vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Sochaux part of?
Rodez vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 30% chance of winning, Sochaux a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Rodez and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Sochaux?
Record (3 meetings): Rodez 0W | Draws 0 | Sochaux 3W.
What form are Rodez and Sochaux in?
Rodez (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Sochaux (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rodez's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Sochaux's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Sochaux's attack (1.11x) against Rodez's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
30%
3.31
28%
3.56
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.31
1.27
Sochaux xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
8%
11.80
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Rodez and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Rodez and 1.27 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rodez come into this having played 59 games, going 14W 21D 24L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sochaux sit at 1.78 PPG from 59 outings (30W 15D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sochaux carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Rodez — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Rodez's home form reads 6W 13D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Sochaux have taken 1.48 points per game from 29 outings (12W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rodez are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 1.36 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Sochaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 14W 21D 24L in their last 59 games (1.07 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 30W 15D 14L in their last 59 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Sochaux away?
Sochaux's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.07 PPG; Sochaux away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Rodez or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sochaux in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sochaux have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sochaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rodez
0
Draws
4
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Sochaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Rodez have won 0, Sochaux have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2023, when Rodez 1-2 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Sochaux?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rodez see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 45%, Sochaux 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Rodez) and 48% (Sochaux).
On the defensive side: Sochaux in 38%; Rodez have failed to score in 38% of games; Sochaux in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Rodez's recent matches and 48% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Rodez's recent games and 48% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Sochaux tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sochaux edge out Rodez 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat Rodez 1-2 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.04 xG and Sochaux 1.27 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.82 / defence 1.09 against Sochaux attack 1.11 / defence 1.07, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 30% | Draw 28% | Sochaux 42%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 27%, Sochaux 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Sochaux's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Rodez (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.