Rodez vs Saint Etienne – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul-Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade Paul-Lignon this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul-Lignon than their overall form suggests.
Saint Etienne (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Saint Etienne have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Saint Etienne are 1.10 PPG clear of Rodez in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rodez have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Saint Etienne in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Rodez 3W, Saint Etienne 3W, 3D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2026, ended 0–2 with Saint Etienne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 68% versus Saint Etienne 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 52% | Saint Etienne 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.47 xG and Saint Etienne 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.160 / defence 1.202 | Saint Etienne attack 1.109 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Data: 42 Rodez games / 43 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 32% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 44%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Saint Etienne 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Saint Etienne 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 32% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Rodez 1.47 / Saint Etienne 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.160 / def 1.202 | Saint Etienne attack 1.109 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Saint Etienne xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Rodez vs Saint Etienne is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 14 May 2027 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
Where is Rodez vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Saint Etienne part of?
Rodez vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 32% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Rodez and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Saint Etienne?
Record (9 meetings): Rodez 3W | Draws 3 | Saint Etienne 3W.
What form are Rodez and Saint Etienne in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rodez's attack at 1.16x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (1.11x) against Rodez's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
32%
3.13
24%
4.17
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Rodez xG
Total xG
3.23
1.75
Saint Etienne xG
3.13
32%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
6%
18.10
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Rodez and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Rodez and 1.75 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rodez's recent record stands at 18W 15D 11L from 44 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 24W 8D 12L across 44 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Rodez against 1.82 for Saint Etienne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 9W 8D 4L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 9W 4D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Rodez are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.70 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 18W 15D 11L in their last 44 games (1.57 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 24W 8D 12L in their last 44 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Saint Etienne away?
Rodez's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.67 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Rodez or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 4-0 on 16 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Rodez
3
Draws
3
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Saint Etienne?
From 9 meetings on record, Rodez have won 3, Saint Etienne have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Saint Etienne 2-0 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 71%, Saint Etienne 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Rodez) and 57% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne in 33%; Saint Etienne in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Rodez's games and 48% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Rodez's recent games and 57% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.