Rodez 1-1 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rodez at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rodez and Grenoble meet at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rodez's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 3L from 9 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez at Stade Paul Lignon this season: 1W 2D 1L from 4 home games — 1.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Paul Lignon. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Grenoble (all games): 3W 1D 5L across 9 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.11 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Grenoble have posted 0W 0D 4L from 4 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.11 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.33 for Rodez, 1.11 for Grenoble — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Rodez have seen both teams score in just 25% of their games, Grenoble in only 25%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading & In-Play
Rodez — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Grenoble — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Rodez 33% | Grenoble 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 33% | Grenoble 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.17 xG and Grenoble 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.854 / defence 1.215 | Grenoble attack 0.656 / defence 1.617. League average goals — home 0.849 / away 1.038. Grenoble bring a strong defensive rating of 1.617 — this is suppressing Rodez's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Rodez games / 9 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 41% | Draw 35% | Grenoble 23%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Grenoble 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 25% | Grenoble 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 41% | Draw 35% | Grenoble 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Rodez 1.17 / Grenoble 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.854 / def 1.215 | Grenoble attack 0.656 / def 1.617 | league avg home 0.849 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Rodez (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Grenoble xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Grenoble kick off?
Rodez vs Grenoble kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Grenoble?
Rodez 1 - 1 Grenoble.
Where is Rodez vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Grenoble part of?
Rodez vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 41% chance of winning, Grenoble a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Rodez and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Grenoble?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rodez and Grenoble in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Grenoble (all comps): 3W-1D-5L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rodez's attack rating (0.85) and Grenoble's defence rating (1.62), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Grenoble's attack (0.66x) against Rodez's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
41%
2.42
35%
2.83
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.00
0.83
Grenoble xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
7%
13.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.2 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Rodez and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Rodez and 0.83 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rodez come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 3D 3L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Grenoble sit at 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Rodez against 1.11 for Grenoble. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rodez's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Grenoble have taken 0.00 points per game from 4 outings (0W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Grenoble's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Grenoble away?
Rodez's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.25 PPG; Grenoble away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Rodez or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Grenoble in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Grenoble — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rodez
3
Draws
4
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Grenoble?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 3, Grenoble have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Rodez 1-0 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Grenoble?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Rodez) and 25% (Grenoble) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Rodez) and 50% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Rodez have failed to score in 50% of games; Grenoble in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Rodez's recent matches and 25% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Rodez's recent games and 50% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Grenoble tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and Grenoble share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 10, as Rodez and Grenoble drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.17 xG and Grenoble 0.83 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.85 / defence 1.22 against Grenoble attack 0.66 / defence 1.62, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 41% | Draw 35% | Grenoble 23%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 33%, Grenoble 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Grenoble's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.33 PPG, Grenoble 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grenoble (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.