Rodez 2-1 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Friday 30 December 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rodez have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stade Paul Lignon — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Dijon's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Rodez 0W, Dijon 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 0–2 with Dijon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Dijon half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 35% versus Dijon 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 26% | Dijon 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.01 xG and Dijon 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.849 / defence 1.225 | Dijon attack 0.918 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 0.990. Data: 54 Rodez games / 54 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 32% | Draw 30% | Dijon 38%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Dijon 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dijon as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Rodez 50% | Dijon 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 30 Dec 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 32% | Draw 30% | Dijon 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Rodez 1.01 / Dijon 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.849 / def 1.225 | Dijon attack 0.918 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.150 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Dijon (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Dijon xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Dijon kick off?
Rodez vs Dijon kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 30 December 2022 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Dijon?
Rodez 2 - 1 Dijon.
Where is Rodez vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Dijon part of?
Rodez vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 32% chance of winning, Dijon a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Rodez and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Dijon?
Record (2 meetings): Rodez 0W | Draws 1 | Dijon 1W.
What form are Rodez and Dijon in?
Rodez (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Dijon (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rodez's attack rating (0.85) and Dijon's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.92x) against Rodez's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
32%
3.08
30%
3.36
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.12
1.11
Dijon xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Rodez and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Rodez and 1.11 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rodez's recent record stands at 13W 19D 22L from 54 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dijon, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 23L across 54 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Rodez against 1.20 for Dijon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 5W 12D 9L from 26 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dijon's away record stands at 6W 7D 13L across 26 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Dijon in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 13W 19D 22L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while Dijon have gone 17W 14D 23L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Dijon away?
Rodez's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.04 PPG; Dijon away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Rodez or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dijon in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rodez
1
Draws
2
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Dijon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Dijon 1-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Dijon?
Dijon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 42%, Dijon 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Rodez) and 58% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Rodez have failed to score in 38% of games; Dijon in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Rodez's recent matches and 58% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Rodez's recent games and 58% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Dijon tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Dijon in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat Dijon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Dijon 2-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.01 xG and Dijon 1.11 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Rodez beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Dijon attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 32% | Draw 30% | Dijon 38%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 26%, Dijon 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dijon's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.07 PPG, Dijon 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.