Rodez 1-3 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rodez host Auxerre at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rodez — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rodez have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stade Paul Lignon — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Auxerre — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Rodez's 30% rate and Auxerre's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Rodez have won 0, Auxerre 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Auxerre winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Rodez in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Auxerre in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 31% versus Auxerre 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 27% | Auxerre 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 0.68 xG and Auxerre 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.684 / defence 1.053 | Auxerre attack 0.893 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.012 / away 0.934. Rodez's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Rodez games / 26 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 26% | Draw 36% | Auxerre 37%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.85 | Draw 2.78 | Auxerre 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.56. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.56 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Rodez's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 21% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 29%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 30% | Auxerre 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 26% | Draw 36% | Auxerre 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 29% | xG Rodez 0.68 / Auxerre 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.684 / def 1.053 | Auxerre attack 0.893 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.012 / away 0.934 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Auxerre xG
29%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Auxerre kick off?
Rodez vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Auxerre?
Rodez 1 - 3 Auxerre.
Where is Rodez vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Auxerre part of?
Rodez vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 26% chance of winning, Auxerre a 37% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Rodez and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Auxerre?
Record (1 meetings): Rodez 0W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Rodez and Auxerre in?
Rodez (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rodez's attack rating (0.68) and Auxerre's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.8%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
26%
3.82
36%
2.75
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Rodez xG
Total xG
1.56
0.88
Auxerre xG
3.82
26%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.41
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
51%
1.98
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
19%
5.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.0 | 18.5 | 8.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.6 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.6%.
How many goals are Rodez and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Rodez and 0.88 for Auxerre, a combined total of 1.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rodez come into this having played 26 games, going 7W 9D 10L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.73 PPG from 26 outings (12W 9D 5L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Rodez — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Rodez's home form reads 3W 6D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.67 points per game from 12 outings (5W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.46 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Auxerre in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 7W 9D 10L in their last 26 games (1.15 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 12W 9D 5L in their last 26 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.25 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Rodez or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Auxerre in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rodez's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rodez
0
Draws
3
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Auxerre have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Rodez 2-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Rodez 25% BTTS, Auxerre 42%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Rodez and 33% for Auxerre.
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Auxerre in 50%; Rodez have failed to score in 50% of games; Auxerre in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Rodez's recent matches and 42% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Rodez's recent games and 33% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Rodez 1-3 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 0.68 xG and Auxerre 0.88 xG, a combined 1.56. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.68 / defence 1.05 against Auxerre attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 26% | Draw 36% | Auxerre 37%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 27%, Auxerre 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Rodez (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.