Reims 4-2 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Delaune plays host to Reims versus Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 16 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reims have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reims have posted 3W 6D 1L at Stade Auguste-Delaune — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dijon's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 2L from 8 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Dijon have posted 1W 3D 0L from 4 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Reims, 1.50 for Dijon — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Reims register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Dijon in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Reims 75% and Dijon 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 62% | Dijon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.74 xG and Dijon 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.276 / defence 1.155 | Dijon attack 0.961 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.221. Reims carry an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Reims games / 8 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 46% | Draw 25% | Dijon 29%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Dijon 3.45. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Reims 80% | Dijon 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 46% | Draw 25% | Dijon 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Reims 1.74 / Dijon 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.276 / def 1.155 | Dijon attack 0.961 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Reims (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Dijon xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Dijon kick off?
Reims vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Dijon?
Reims 4 - 2 Dijon.
Where is Reims vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Dijon part of?
Reims vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 46% chance of winning, Dijon a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Reims and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Dijon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reims and Dijon in?
Reims (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Dijon (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Reims's attack at 1.28x the league average against Dijon's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.96x) against Reims's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
46%
2.19
25%
4.00
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Reims xG
Total xG
3.09
1.35
Dijon xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
5%
19.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Reims and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Reims and 1.35 for Dijon, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Reims's recent record stands at 3W 5D 0L from 8 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dijon, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 2L across 8 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Reims against 1.50 for Dijon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Reims have managed 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dijon's away record stands at 1W 3D 0L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reims are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reims have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Dijon in 88%.
Last 8 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Dijon in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 3W 5D 0L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while Dijon have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Dijon away?
Reims's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.50 PPG; Dijon away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since October 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Reims
0
Draws
0
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Dijon?
From 1 meetings on record, Reims have won 1, Dijon have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Reims 4-2 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Dijon?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Dijon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Reims, 100% for Dijon — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Reims) and 25% (Dijon).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Reims's games and 100% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Reims's recent games and 25% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Dijon tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dijon in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Dijon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Dijon 4-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.74 xG and Dijon 1.35 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.28 / defence 1.16 against Dijon attack 0.96 / defence 1.03, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 46% | Draw 25% | Dijon 29%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 62%, Dijon 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 81%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Dijon's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.75 PPG, Dijon 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm. Dijon (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.