Quevilly 1-3 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Laval fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Robert Diochon plays host to Quevilly versus Laval in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 17 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Quevilly (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Quevilly have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade Robert Diochon — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Laval's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 1D 5L from 8 games (0.88 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval away from home this season: 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.88 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Quevilly, 0.88 for Laval — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Quevilly goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Laval goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 50% versus Laval 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 62% | Laval 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.69 xG and Laval 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.114 / defence 1.146 | Laval attack 0.873 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.180. Laval bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Quevilly games / 8 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 49% | Draw 25% | Laval 26%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Laval 3.85. Quevilly hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Quevilly 50% | Laval 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 49% | Draw 25% | Laval 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Quevilly 1.69 / Laval 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.114 / def 1.146 | Laval attack 0.873 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Laval xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Laval kick off?
Quevilly vs Laval kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Laval?
Quevilly 1 - 3 Laval.
Where is Quevilly vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Laval part of?
Quevilly vs Laval is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 49% chance of winning, Laval a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Quevilly and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Laval?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Quevilly and Laval in?
Quevilly (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Laval (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.75 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Quevilly's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Laval's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Laval's attack (0.87x) against Quevilly's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
49%
2.04
25%
4.06
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.87
1.18
Laval xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
5%
20.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.18 for Laval, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly's recent record stands at 1W 4D 3L from 8 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Laval, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 5L across 8 games — 0.88 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Quevilly against 0.88 for Laval. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Quevilly have managed 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Quevilly are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Laval's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.88 PPG overall record — Laval travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.12 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 8 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Laval in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 1W 4D 3L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Laval have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Laval away?
Quevilly's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.50 PPG; Laval away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Laval — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Quevilly
1
Draws
1
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Laval?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 2, Laval have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Laval 2-4 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Laval?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 75%, Laval 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Quevilly) and 25% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Laval in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Quevilly's recent matches and 25% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Quevilly's recent games and 25% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Laval tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Laval in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Laval cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Quevilly.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Quevilly 1-3 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.69 xG and Laval 1.18 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Laval outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.11 / defence 1.15 against Laval attack 0.87 / defence 1.21, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 49% | Draw 25% | Laval 26%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Laval win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 62%, Laval 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Laval's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 0.88 PPG, Laval 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Laval (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.