Quevilly 2-2 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Quevilly host Caen at Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Quevilly have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 3L across 8 games at Stade Robert Diochon this term (1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Caen stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Caen away from home this season: 2W 5D 1L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Quevilly) versus 1.00 (Caen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Quevilly in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Caen in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 56% versus Caen 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 56% | Caen 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 0.86 xG and Caen 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.812 / defence 1.208 | Caen attack 0.913 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.038. Data: 18 Quevilly games / 18 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 27% | Draw 30% | Caen 42%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Caen 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Caen are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Caen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Quevilly 50% | Caen 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 27% | Draw 30% | Caen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Quevilly 0.86 / Caen 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.812 / def 1.208 | Caen attack 0.913 / def 1.084 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Caen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Caen xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Caen kick off?
Quevilly vs Caen kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Caen?
Quevilly 2 - 2 Caen.
Where is Quevilly vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Caen part of?
Quevilly vs Caen is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 27% chance of winning, Caen a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Quevilly and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Caen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Quevilly and Caen in?
Quevilly (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Caen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Quevilly's attack rating (0.81) and Caen's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Caen's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
27%
3.67
30%
3.29
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.00
1.15
Caen xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
42%
2.35
Win to Nil
9%
11.53
18%
5.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 15.5 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.15 for Caen, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Quevilly come into this having played 18 games, going 6W 5D 7L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Caen sit at 1.17 PPG from 18 outings (5W 6D 7L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 1.28 PPG, Caen on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Quevilly's home form reads 2W 3D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Caen have taken 1.38 points per game from 8 outings (2W 5D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Quevilly are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.11 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Caen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Caen in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 games (1.28 PPG), while Caen have gone 5W 6D 7L in their last 18 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Caen away?
Caen's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.12 PPG; Caen away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Caen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Quevilly and Caen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Quevilly's record when hosting Caen specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Quevilly
2
Draws
2
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Caen?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 2, Caen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Quevilly 1-2 Caen.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Caen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 50%, Caen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Quevilly) and 25% (Caen).
On the defensive side: Caen in 38%; Quevilly have failed to score in 50% of games; Caen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Quevilly's recent matches and 50% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Quevilly's recent games and 25% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Caen tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Caen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly and Caen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly and Caen finished level at 2-2 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 0.86 xG and Caen 1.15 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Quevilly beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Caen outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.81 / defence 1.21 against Caen attack 0.91 / defence 1.08, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 27% | Draw 30% | Caen 42%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 56%, Caen 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Caen's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.28 PPG, Caen 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm. Caen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.