Quevilly 1-2 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Quevilly take on Bastia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Quevilly and Bastia meet at Stade Michel d'Ornano in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 18 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Quevilly have collected 2.33 PPG across 3 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 1D 0L. Last five: D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bastia (all games): 0W 2D 1L across 3 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.67 points per game. Last five: D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bastia have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.66 in Quevilly's favour (2.33 vs 0.67) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Quevilly have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, Bastia in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Quevilly goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Quevilly 100% and Bastia 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Quevilly 67% | Bastia 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 0.92 xG and Bastia 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.142 / defence 1.130 | Bastia attack 0.678 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 0.692 / away 1.178. Data: 3 Quevilly games / 3 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 30% | Draw 41% | Bastia 29%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 3.33 | Draw 2.44 | Bastia 3.45. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 40% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.82 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. This conflicts with form data: Quevilly 100% | Bastia 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 30% | Draw 41% | Bastia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 40% | xG Quevilly 0.92 / Bastia 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.142 / def 1.130 | Bastia attack 0.678 / def 1.162 | league avg home 0.692 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Bastia xG
40%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Bastia kick off?
Quevilly vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 18 August 2021 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Bastia?
Quevilly 1 - 2 Bastia.
Where is Quevilly vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Quevilly vs Bastia part of?
Quevilly vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 30% chance of winning, Bastia a 29% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Quevilly and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Bastia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Quevilly and Bastia in?
Quevilly (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W. Bastia (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Quevilly's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.68x) against Quevilly's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.33
41%
2.46
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Quevilly xG
Total xG
1.82
0.90
Bastia xG
3.33
30%
Home win
2.46
41%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
41%
2.47
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 14.6 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Quevilly and 0.90 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 1D 0L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bastia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Quevilly carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.66 PPG clear of Bastia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Quevilly's scoring rate against Bastia's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Quevilly have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Bastia in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Early Season
Bastia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Bastia in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Bastia have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 (0.67 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won 3-0 on 8 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Quevilly
2
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Bastia?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 1, Bastia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Quevilly 0-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Quevilly, 67% for Bastia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Quevilly and 0% for Bastia.
On the defensive side: Bastia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Bastia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Quevilly's games and 67% of Bastia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Quevilly vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Quevilly's recent games and 0% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Bastia tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bastia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bastia defy the odds to beat Quevilly 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Quevilly 1-2 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 0.92 xG and Bastia 0.90 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bastia outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.14 / defence 1.13 against Bastia attack 0.68 / defence 1.16, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 30% | Draw 41% | Bastia 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Bastia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 67%, Bastia 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Quevilly arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Bastia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Quevilly managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bastia scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.