Quevilly 0-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Quevilly and Bastia meet at Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Quevilly have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Robert Diochon, Quevilly have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bastia (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Quevilly, 1.10 for Bastia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Quevilly, 2 for Bastia and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Quevilly goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 54% versus Bastia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 51% | Bastia 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.41 xG and Bastia 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.942 / defence 1.080 | Bastia attack 1.056 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.110. Bastia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Quevilly games / 61 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 40% | Draw 26% | Bastia 34%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Bastia 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Quevilly at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Quevilly 60% | Bastia 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 40% | Draw 26% | Bastia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Quevilly 1.41 / Bastia 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.942 / def 1.080 | Bastia attack 1.056 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Bastia xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Bastia kick off?
Quevilly vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Bastia?
Quevilly 0 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Quevilly vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Bastia part of?
Quevilly vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 40% chance of winning, Bastia a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Quevilly and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Bastia?
Record (5 meetings): Quevilly 1W | Draws 2 | Bastia 2W.
What form are Quevilly and Bastia in?
Quevilly (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Bastia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Quevilly's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (1.06x) against Quevilly's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
40%
2.47
26%
3.87
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.68
1.27
Bastia xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
8%
12.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.27 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly come into this having played 61 games, going 16W 23D 22L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.43 PPG from 61 outings (24W 15D 22L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Quevilly against 1.43 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Quevilly's home form reads 8W 13D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 0.97 points per game from 30 outings (7W 8D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's season.
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.28 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Bastia in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 16W 23D 22L in their last 61 games (1.16 PPG), while Bastia have gone 24W 15D 22L in their last 61 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Bastia away?
Quevilly's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.23 PPG; Bastia away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bastia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won 3-0 on 8 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Quevilly
2
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Bastia?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 1, Bastia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Quevilly 0-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 63%, Bastia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Quevilly) and 43% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 30% of games; Bastia in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Bastia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Quevilly's games and 47% of Bastia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Quevilly vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Quevilly's recent games and 43% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Bastia tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Bastia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bastia defy the odds to beat Quevilly 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Quevilly 0-1 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.41 xG and Bastia 1.27 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Quevilly fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.94 / defence 1.08 against Bastia attack 1.06 / defence 1.22, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 40% | Draw 26% | Bastia 34%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bastia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 51%, Bastia 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bastia's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.16 PPG, Bastia 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Bastia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.