PAU 1-1 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Metz at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Metz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Metz travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 April 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
PAU's home record at Stade Nouste Camp: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Metz — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Metz away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Metz are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, PAU have won 0, Metz 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Metz winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
PAU trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Metz trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 42% versus Metz 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 39% | Metz 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 0.70 xG and Metz 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.685 / defence 1.009 | Metz attack 1.280 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.046. PAU's attack strength of 0.685 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Metz have an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 PAU games / 29 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 19% | Draw 29% | Metz 52%. Fair-value odds: PAU 5.26 | Draw 3.45 | Metz 1.92. Metz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Metz as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Metz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 30% | Metz 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 19% | Draw 29% | Metz 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 37% | xG PAU 0.70 / Metz 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.685 / def 1.009 | Metz attack 1.280 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Metz (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Metz xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Metz kick off?
PAU vs Metz kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Metz?
PAU 1 - 1 Metz.
Where is PAU vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Metz part of?
PAU vs Metz is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 19% chance of winning, Metz a 52% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both PAU and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Metz?
Record (1 meetings): PAU 0W | Draws 0 | Metz 1W.
What form are PAU and Metz in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Metz (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
PAU's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Metz's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.70. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
19%
5.26
29%
3.48
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
PAU xG
Total xG
2.05
1.35
Metz xG
5.26
19%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
5%
20.30
26%
3.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 17.4 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are PAU and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for PAU and 1.35 for Metz, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, PAU have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 22W 16D 29L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Metz's form line: 20W 22D 25L from 67 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.22 PPG, Metz on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.48 PPG from 33 outings (14W 7D 12L).
On the road, Metz have gone 10W 9D 14L from 33 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
PAU are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.18 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Current Season
Metz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Metz in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 22W 16D 29L in their last 67 games (1.22 PPG), while Metz have gone 20W 22D 25L in their last 67 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Metz away?
PAU's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.48 PPG; Metz away: 1.18 PPG.
Have PAU or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Metz in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
PAU's record when hosting Metz specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
PAU
2
Draws
1
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Metz?
From 4 meetings on record, PAU have won 1, Metz have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when PAU 2-1 Metz.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 36%, Metz 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (PAU) and 48% (Metz).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; PAU have failed to score in 33% of games; Metz in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of PAU's recent matches and 42% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of PAU's recent games and 48% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Metz tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Metz in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU and Metz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU and Metz finished level at 1-1 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 0.70 xG and Metz 1.35 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.69 / defence 1.01 against Metz attack 1.28 / defence 0.81, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 19% | Draw 29% | Metz 52%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 39%, Metz 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Metz's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.22 PPG, Metz 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.