PAU 0-1 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PAU and Grenoble meet at Stade Nouste Camp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stade Nouste Camp, PAU have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Nouste Camp. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — PAU are significantly better at Stade Nouste Camp than their overall form suggests.
Grenoble's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Grenoble have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in PAU's favour (1.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: PAU 0W, Grenoble 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Grenoble winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Grenoble half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 39% versus Grenoble 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAU 39% | Grenoble 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.32 xG and Grenoble 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.082 / defence 1.168 | Grenoble attack 0.640 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 0.976 / away 0.916. Grenoble bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing PAU's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 PAU games / 28 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 52% | Draw 29% | Grenoble 19%. Fair-value odds: PAU 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Grenoble 5.26. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Grenoble 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 52% | Draw 29% | Grenoble 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 36% | xG PAU 1.32 / Grenoble 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.082 / def 1.168 | Grenoble attack 0.640 / def 1.253 | league avg home 0.976 / away 0.916 • Poisson stance: PAU (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Grenoble xG
36%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Grenoble kick off?
PAU vs Grenoble kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Grenoble?
PAU 0 - 1 Grenoble.
Where is PAU vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Grenoble part of?
PAU vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 52% chance of winning, Grenoble a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both PAU and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Grenoble?
Record (1 meetings): PAU 0W | Draws 0 | Grenoble 1W.
What form are PAU and Grenoble in?
PAU (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Grenoble (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from PAU's attack rating (1.08) and Grenoble's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Grenoble's attack (0.64x) against PAU's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
52%
1.92
29%
3.48
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
PAU xG
Total xG
2.01
0.69
Grenoble xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
50%
1.98
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
5%
19.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.2 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are PAU and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for PAU and 0.69 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAU come into this having played 28 games, going 11W 5D 12L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Grenoble sit at 1.04 PPG from 28 outings (8W 5D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for PAU against 1.04 for Grenoble. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PAU's home form reads 9W 1D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — PAU are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Grenoble have taken 0.64 points per game from 14 outings (2W 3D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Grenoble's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 0.75 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Grenoble in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Current Season
Grenoble
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Grenoble in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 11W 5D 12L in their last 28 games (1.36 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 8W 5D 15L in their last 28 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Grenoble away?
PAU's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 2.00 PPG; Grenoble away: 0.64 PPG.
Have PAU or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Grenoble in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Grenoble — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
PAU
5
Draws
2
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Grenoble?
From 10 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, Grenoble have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when PAU 2-2 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Grenoble?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 36% (PAU) and 29% (Grenoble) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (PAU) and 29% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Grenoble in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of PAU's recent matches and 29% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of PAU's recent games and 29% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Grenoble tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Grenoble defy the odds to beat PAU 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble beat PAU 0-1 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.32 xG and Grenoble 0.69 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAU fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.08 / defence 1.17 against Grenoble attack 0.64 / defence 1.25, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 52% | Draw 29% | Grenoble 19%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Grenoble win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 39%, Grenoble 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grenoble's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.36 PPG, Grenoble 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Grenoble (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.