PAU 0-2 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 22 as PAU welcome Bordeaux to Stade Nouste Camp. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stade Nouste Camp this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bordeaux — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (PAU) versus 1.30 (Bordeaux). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, PAU have won 0, Bordeaux 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
PAU in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 46% versus Bordeaux 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 44% | Bordeaux 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.03 xG and Bordeaux 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.910 / defence 1.022 | Bordeaux attack 1.136 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.054. Data: 59 PAU games / 21 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 31% | Draw 29% | Bordeaux 41%. Fair-value odds: PAU 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Bordeaux 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bordeaux at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Bordeaux 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 3 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 31% | Draw 29% | Bordeaux 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG PAU 1.03 / Bordeaux 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.910 / def 1.022 | Bordeaux attack 1.136 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Bordeaux xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Bordeaux kick off?
PAU vs Bordeaux kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 February 2023 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Bordeaux?
PAU 0 - 2 Bordeaux.
Where is PAU vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Bordeaux part of?
PAU vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 31% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both PAU and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Bordeaux?
Record (1 meetings): PAU 0W | Draws 1 | Bordeaux 0W.
What form are PAU and Bordeaux in?
PAU (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Bordeaux (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
PAU's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Bordeaux's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
31%
3.24
29%
3.50
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
PAU xG
Total xG
2.25
1.22
Bordeaux xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
9%
11.03
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are PAU and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for PAU and 1.22 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, PAU have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 20W 15D 24L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bordeaux's form line: 16W 19D 24L from 59 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.27 PPG, Bordeaux on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.59 PPG from 29 outings (13W 7D 9L).
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 7W 9D 13L from 29 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.37 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 20W 15D 24L in their last 59 games (1.27 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 16W 19D 24L in their last 59 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Bordeaux away?
PAU's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.59 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAU and Bordeaux runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2023, when PAU won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting Bordeaux specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
PAU
1
Draws
2
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Bordeaux?
From 4 meetings on record, PAU have won 1, Bordeaux have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when Bordeaux 3-2 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Bordeaux?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 41%, Bordeaux 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for PAU and 72% for Bordeaux. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; PAU have failed to score in 28% of games; Bordeaux in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Bordeaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of PAU's recent matches and 59% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of PAU's matches and 72% of Bordeaux's.
Do PAU and Bordeaux tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bordeaux cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat PAU 0-2 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.03 xG and Bordeaux 1.22 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. PAU fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.91 / defence 1.02 against Bordeaux attack 1.14 / defence 0.96, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 31% | Draw 29% | Bordeaux 41%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 44%, Bordeaux 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bordeaux's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.27 PPG, Bordeaux 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bordeaux win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bordeaux (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.