PAU 1-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as PAU take on Ajaccio.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Ajaccio travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU at Stade Nouste Camp this season: 4W 1D 2L from 7 home games — 1.86 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ajaccio — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajaccio's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 1L across 6 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ajaccio — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
PAU trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Ajaccio trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (PAU 38% | Ajaccio 23%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAU 31% | Ajaccio 15%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 0.92 xG and Ajaccio 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.983 / defence 1.001 | Ajaccio attack 0.926 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 0.922 / away 1.056. Data: 13 PAU games / 13 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 31% | Draw 35% | Ajaccio 34%. Fair-value odds: PAU 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Ajaccio 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAU 43% | Ajaccio 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 31% | Draw 35% | Ajaccio 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG PAU 0.92 / Ajaccio 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.983 / def 1.001 | Ajaccio attack 0.926 / def 1.013 | league avg home 0.922 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Ajaccio xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Ajaccio kick off?
PAU vs Ajaccio kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Ajaccio?
PAU 1 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is PAU vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Ajaccio part of?
PAU vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 31% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both PAU and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Ajaccio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAU and Ajaccio in?
PAU (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Ajaccio (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PAU's attack at 0.98x the league average against Ajaccio's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
35%
2.90
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
PAU xG
Total xG
1.90
0.98
Ajaccio xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 14.7 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are PAU and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for PAU and 0.98 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, PAU have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 5W 3D 5L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajaccio's form line: 7W 4D 2L from 13 games, 1.92 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ajaccio are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PAU.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ajaccio's season.
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 1.23 scored and 0.54 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio in 23%.
Defensively: Ajaccio in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 games (1.38 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 7W 4D 2L in their last 13 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Ajaccio away?
PAU's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.67 PPG; Ajaccio away: 1.50 PPG.
Have PAU or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAU and Ajaccio runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAU's record when hosting Ajaccio specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
PAU
2
Draws
2
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Ajaccio?
From 6 meetings on record, PAU have won 2, Ajaccio have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Ajaccio 1-1 PAU.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — PAU 33% BTTS, Ajaccio 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for PAU and 17% for Ajaccio.
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ajaccio in 50%; Ajaccio in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of PAU's recent matches and 33% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of PAU's recent games and 17% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Ajaccio tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Ajaccio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Ajaccio 1-0 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 0.92 xG and Ajaccio 0.98 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ajaccio landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Ajaccio attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 31% | Draw 35% | Ajaccio 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual PAU win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 23% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 31%, Ajaccio 15%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ajaccio's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.38. Form was overturned, with PAU winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajaccio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.