Paris FC 3-3 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris FC at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris FC vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Rodez travel to Stade Charléty to take on Paris FC in Ligue 2 (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Friday 1 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Paris FC stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Paris FC have posted 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Paris FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Rodez have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Rodez have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Paris FC are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Paris FC have won 3, Rodez 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2024, ended Paris FC 2–2 Rodez — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Paris FC trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Rodez trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 50% versus Rodez 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 48% | Rodez 62%). Note also that Rodez surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Paris FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.43 xG and Rodez 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.105 / defence 0.937 | Rodez attack 1.164 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.123. Data: built from Paris FC's last 49 games and Rodez's last 49.
Result probabilities: Paris FC 42% | Draw 26% | Rodez 32%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.39 | Draw 3.86 | Rodez 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Paris FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 12 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Friday 1 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 42% | Draw 26% | Rodez 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Paris FC 1.43 / Rodez 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.105 / def 0.937 | Rodez attack 1.164 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Rodez xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris FC vs Rodez FAQs
What time does Paris FC vs Rodez kick off?
Paris FC vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 1 November 2024 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Rodez?
Paris FC 3 - 3 Rodez.
Where is Paris FC vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Rodez part of?
Paris FC vs Rodez is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 12) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 42% chance of winning, Rodez a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Paris FC and Rodez will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Paris FC vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Paris FC's attack at 1.10x the league average against Rodez's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Paris FC's last 49 games and Rodez's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
42%
2.39
26%
3.86
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.66
1.22
Rodez xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
8%
12.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris FC vs Rodez Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.22 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Paris FC come into this having played 50 games, going 24W 13D 13L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.42 PPG from 50 outings (19W 14D 17L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.70 PPG, Rodez on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Paris FC's home form reads 14W 4D 6L across their last 24 home games, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.25 points per game from their last 24 away games (8W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris FC are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.58 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 66%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Rodez
Blended
Paris FC (Home) vs Rodez (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris FC
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Paris FC vs Rodez Form FAQs
What form are Paris FC and Rodez in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 24W 13D 13L in their last 50 games (1.70 PPG), while Rodez have gone 19W 14D 17L in their last 50 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Rodez away?
Paris FC's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.92 PPG; Rodez away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Rodez in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Paris FC's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Paris FC
4
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris FC vs Rodez H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Rodez?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris FC have won 3, Rodez have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Rodez last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2025: Rodez 1-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Rodez?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 54%, Rodez 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Paris FC) and 58% (Rodez). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris FC vs Rodez Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris FC and Rodez matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Paris FC's games and 62% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Paris FC and Rodez matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Paris FC's matches and 58% of Rodez's.
Do Paris FC and Rodez matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Paris FC's recent matches and 88% of Rodez's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris FC and Rodez share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 12, as Paris FC and Rodez drew 3-3 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.43 xG and Rodez 1.22 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Paris FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rodez outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.94 against Rodez attack 1.16 / defence 0.92, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 42% | Draw 26% | Rodez 32%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 48%, Rodez 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.70 PPG, Rodez 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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