Paris FC 3-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Paris FC face PAU.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Paris FC welcome PAU to Stade Charléty in Ligue 2 (matchday 22). Kick-off is Friday 7 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Paris FC — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Paris FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Paris FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, PAU stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
PAU's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Paris FC) versus 1.40 (PAU). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Paris FC have won 1, PAU 3, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 7 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2024, ended Paris FC 0–0 PAU — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Paris FC in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
PAU in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 49% versus PAU 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 48% | PAU 51%). Note also that PAU surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Paris FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.46 xG and PAU 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.160 / defence 1.025 | PAU attack 0.990 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.008. Data: built from Paris FC's last 59 games and PAU's last 59.
Result probabilities: Paris FC 47% | Draw 26% | PAU 26%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.12 | Draw 3.80 | PAU 3.78. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris FC at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Paris FC 60% (last 10 home games) | PAU 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 22 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Friday 7 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 47% | Draw 26% | PAU 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Paris FC 1.46 / PAU 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.160 / def 1.025 | PAU attack 0.990 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
PAU xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris FC vs PAU FAQs
What time does Paris FC vs PAU kick off?
Paris FC vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 7 February 2025 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs PAU?
Paris FC 3 - 1 PAU.
Where is Paris FC vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs PAU part of?
Paris FC vs PAU is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 47% chance of winning, PAU a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Paris FC and PAU will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Paris FC vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Paris FC's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against PAU's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Paris FC's last 59 games and PAU's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.80
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.48
1.02
PAU xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
6%
16.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris FC vs PAU Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Paris FC and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.02 for PAU, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Paris FC have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 28W 16D 15L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
PAU's form line: 20W 20D 19L from 59 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.69 PPG, PAU on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Paris FC have posted 1.93 PPG from their last 28 home games (16W 6D 6L).
On the road, PAU have gone 8W 10D 10L from their last 28 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris FC are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.42 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
PAU
Blended
Paris FC (Home) vs PAU (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris FC
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Paris FC vs PAU Form FAQs
What form are Paris FC and PAU in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 28W 16D 15L in their last 59 games (1.69 PPG), while PAU have gone 20W 20D 19L in their last 59 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or PAU away?
Paris FC's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.93 PPG; PAU away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Paris FC or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, PAU in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 7 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Paris FC's record when hosting PAU specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Paris FC
3
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris FC vs PAU H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and PAU?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris FC have won 2, PAU have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and PAU last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2025: Paris FC 3-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
PAU see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 57%, PAU 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Paris FC) and 57% (PAU). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris FC vs PAU Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris FC and PAU matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Paris FC's games and 68% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Paris FC and PAU matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Paris FC's matches and 57% of PAU's.
Do Paris FC and PAU matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Paris FC's recent matches and 57% of PAU's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat PAU 3-1 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.46 xG and PAU 1.02 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Paris FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.02 against PAU attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 47% | Draw 26% | PAU 26%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 48%, PAU 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.69 PPG, PAU 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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