Paris FC 1-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 40%, yet in-form Paris FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Paris FC vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Sébastien-Charléty plays host to Paris FC versus Auxerre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Monday 16 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Paris FC (all games): 3W 0D 0L across 3 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W. They are averaging 2.67 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Paris FC have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre have collected 2.33 PPG across 3 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 1D 0L. Last five: W W D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 0.33. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.67 in Paris FC's favour (3.00 vs 2.33) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Paris FC — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
Auxerre — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 67% versus Auxerre 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Paris FC 100% | Auxerre 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 0.93 xG and Auxerre 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.141 / defence 1.160 | Auxerre attack 0.917 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 0.693 / away 1.186. Data: 3 Paris FC games / 3 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 24% | Draw 36% | Auxerre 40%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 4.17 | Draw 2.78 | Auxerre 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Paris FC (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Paris FC 67% | Auxerre 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Sébastien-Charléty • Kick-off: Monday 16 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 24% | Draw 36% | Auxerre 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Paris FC 0.93 / Auxerre 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.141 / def 1.160 | Auxerre attack 0.917 / def 1.177 | league avg home 0.693 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Auxerre xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Auxerre kick off?
Paris FC vs Auxerre kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 16 August 2021 at Stade Sébastien-Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Paris FC 1 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Paris FC vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Sébastien-Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Auxerre part of?
Paris FC vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 24% chance of winning, Auxerre a 40% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Paris FC and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Paris FC and Auxerre in?
Paris FC (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-W. Auxerre (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Paris FC's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.92x) against Paris FC's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
24%
4.24
36%
2.77
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.19
1.26
Auxerre xG
4.24
24%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
7%
14.97
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 14.1 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.26 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Paris FC's recent record stands at 3W 0D 0L from 3 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Paris FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 0L across 3 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris FC by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Auxerre heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Paris FC are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.67 scored and 0.33 conceded. Paris FC's scoring rate against Auxerre's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Paris FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Auxerre in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 games (3.00 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Paris FC or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Auxerre in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris FC have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Paris FC
3
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 1, Auxerre have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Auxerre 0-0 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 67%, Auxerre 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Paris FC and 67% for Auxerre. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Auxerre in 67%; Auxerre in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Paris FC's recent matches and 33% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Paris FC's matches and 67% of Auxerre's.
Do Paris FC and Auxerre tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris FC and Auxerre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Sébastien-Charléty, Regular Season - 4, as Paris FC and Auxerre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 0.93 xG and Auxerre 1.26 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.16 against Auxerre attack 0.92 / defence 1.18, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 24% | Draw 36% | Auxerre 40%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 100%, Auxerre 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Paris FC managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.