Niort 0-2 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Niort at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Niort vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Niort and Rodez meet at Stade René Gaillard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Niort's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Niort at Stade René Gaillard this season: 3W 1D 1L from 5 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade René Gaillard. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rodez (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez away from home this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Niort's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Rodez's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Niort goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Niort 25% | Rodez 42%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Niort 42% | Rodez 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 1.34 xG and Rodez 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 1.144 / defence 0.920 | Rodez attack 0.848 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 0.908 / away 1.054. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Niort's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Niort games / 12 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 48% | Draw 30% | Rodez 22%. Fair-value odds: Niort 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Rodez 4.55. Niort hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Niort as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Niort if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Niort 20% | Rodez 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 48% | Draw 30% | Rodez 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Niort 1.34 / Rodez 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 1.144 / def 0.920 | Rodez attack 0.848 / def 1.292 | league avg home 0.908 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Niort (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Niort xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Rodez xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Rodez kick off?
Niort vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Rodez?
Niort 0 - 2 Rodez.
Where is Niort vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Rodez part of?
Niort vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 48% chance of winning, Rodez a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Niort the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Niort and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Rodez?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Niort and Rodez in?
Niort (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Rodez (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Niort's attack rating (1.14) and Rodez's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.85x) against Niort's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
48%
2.09
30%
3.29
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Niort xG
Total xG
2.16
0.82
Rodez xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
6%
17.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Niort and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Niort and 0.82 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Niort's recent record stands at 5W 3D 4L from 12 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 5L across 12 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Niort by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rodez heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Niort have managed 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Niort are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rodez's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Niort come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Niort are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.92 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Niort have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Niort have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Rodez in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while Rodez have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Rodez away?
Niort's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 2.00 PPG; Rodez away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Niort or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Rodez in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Niort have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Niort
2
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Rodez?
From 4 meetings on record, Niort have won 0, Rodez have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Niort 2-3 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Niort and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Niort 20%, Rodez 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Niort and 40% for Rodez.
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Niort have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Niort's recent matches and 60% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Niort's recent games and 40% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Niort and Rodez tend to score early?
Niort have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Rodez in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Niort.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Niort 0-2 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 1.34 xG and Rodez 0.82 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Niort fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Rodez outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 1.14 / defence 0.92 against Rodez attack 0.85 / defence 1.29, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 48% | Draw 30% | Rodez 22%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Rodez win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 42%, Rodez 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rodez's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Niort arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Rodez winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Niort (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.