Niort 0-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Guingamp at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Niort vs Guingamp encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Niort welcome Guingamp to Stade René Gaillard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Niort — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Niort at Stade René Gaillard this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guingamp away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Guingamp — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Niort register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Guingamp in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Niort have won 1, Guingamp 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Guingamp winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Niort in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 39% versus Guingamp 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Niort 44% | Guingamp 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 1.27 xG and Guingamp 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.831 / defence 1.138 | Guingamp attack 1.446 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.169. Guingamp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Niort's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Guingamp have an above-average attack strength of 1.446 — the away xG of 1.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Niort games / 46 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Niort 25% | Draw 22% | Guingamp 53%. Fair-value odds: Niort 4.00 | Draw 4.55 | Guingamp 1.89. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Niort 60% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.

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