Niort 2-1 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Niort vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade René Gaillard plays host to Niort versus Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 22 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Niort's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Niort's home record at Stade René Gaillard: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Dijon (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dijon have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Niort 0W, Dijon 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with Dijon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Niort half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Dijon half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 36% versus Dijon 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Niort 42% | Dijon 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 0.89 xG and Dijon 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.702 / defence 1.195 | Dijon attack 0.969 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.113. Niort's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Niort games / 50 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 26% | Draw 29% | Dijon 46%. Fair-value odds: Niort 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Dijon 2.17. Dijon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dijon at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Niort 50% | Dijon 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 26% | Draw 29% | Dijon 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Niort 0.89 / Dijon 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.702 / def 1.195 | Dijon attack 0.969 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Dijon (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Niort xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Dijon xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Dijon kick off?
Niort vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Dijon?
Niort 2 - 1 Dijon.
Where is Niort vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Dijon part of?
Niort vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 26% chance of winning, Dijon a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Niort and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Dijon?
Record (2 meetings): Niort 0W | Draws 1 | Dijon 1W.
What form are Niort and Dijon in?
Niort (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Dijon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Niort's attack rating (0.70) and Dijon's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.97x) against Niort's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
26%
3.90
29%
3.50
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Niort xG
Total xG
2.18
1.29
Dijon xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
7%
14.14
19%
5.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 14.6 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Niort and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Niort and 1.29 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Niort come into this having played 50 games, going 14W 12D 24L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dijon sit at 1.20 PPG from 50 outings (16W 12D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Niort against 1.20 for Dijon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Niort's home form reads 8W 6D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Dijon have taken 1.00 points per game from 24 outings (6W 6D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Niort are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.16 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Dijon in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 14W 12D 24L in their last 50 games (1.08 PPG), while Dijon have gone 16W 12D 22L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Dijon away?
Niort's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.25 PPG; Dijon away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Niort go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Niort have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Niort
1
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Niort have won 2, Dijon have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2023, when Dijon 0-1 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Niort and Dijon?
Niort have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Niort see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Niort 38%, Dijon 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Niort) and 58% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Niort have failed to score in 42% of games; Dijon in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Niort's recent matches and 58% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Niort's recent games and 58% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Niort and Dijon tend to score early?
Niort have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Dijon in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Niort defy the odds to beat Dijon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort beat Dijon 2-1 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 0.89 xG and Dijon 1.29 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Niort beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 0.70 / defence 1.20 against Dijon attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 26% | Draw 29% | Dijon 46%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Niort win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 42%, Dijon 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Dijon's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Niort 1.08 PPG, Dijon 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Niort win broke the near-deadlock. Niort (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.