Niort 2-2 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Niort at 48%, yet in-form Annecy provide a compelling counter-argument — this Niort vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Annecy travel to Stade René Gaillard to take on Niort in Ligue 2 (matchday 36). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 May 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Niort — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Niort have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Niort are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Annecy stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Annecy have gone 0W 5D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Annecy — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Niort's last 10 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Niort have won 1, Annecy 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Jul 2022, ended Niort 2–1 Annecy — a Niort win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Niort in-play tendencies (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Annecy in-play tendencies (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 49% versus Annecy 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Niort 57% | Annecy 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 1.93 xG and Annecy 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.970 / defence 1.531 | Annecy attack 0.902 / defence 1.521. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.077. Annecy's defence rating of 1.521 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Niort's projected output up. Niort's defence rating of 1.531 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Annecy's projected output up. Data: built from Niort's last 73 games and Annecy's last 35.
Result probabilities: Niort 48% | Draw 23% | Annecy 30%. Fair-value odds: Niort 2.09 | Draw 4.44 | Annecy 3.37. Niort hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.93 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Niort are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Annecy (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Niort offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Niort's last 10 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Niort 80% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 36 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 48% | Draw 23% | Annecy 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Niort 1.93 / Annecy 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.970 / def 1.531 | Annecy attack 0.902 / def 1.521 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Niort (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Niort xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Annecy xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Niort vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Niort vs Annecy kick off?
Niort vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Annecy?
Niort 2 - 2 Annecy.
Where is Niort vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Annecy part of?
Niort vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 36) (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 48% chance of winning, Annecy a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Niort the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Niort and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Niort vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Niort's attack at 0.97x the league average against Annecy's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Niort's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Niort's last 73 games and Annecy's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
48%
2.09
23%
4.44
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Niort xG
Total xG
3.42
1.49
Annecy xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
15%
6.87
Win to Nil
11%
9.28
4%
23.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Niort vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Niort and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Niort and 1.49 for Annecy, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Niort come into this having played 35 games, going 7W 6D 22L for 0.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.17 PPG from 35 outings (10W 11D 14L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Niort on 0.77 PPG, Annecy on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Niort's home form reads 5W 2D 10L across their last 17 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 0.76 points per game from their last 17 away games (2W 7D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Annecy's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Niort are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.03 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
Niort (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Niort
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
❓ Niort vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Niort and Annecy in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 7W 6D 22L in their last 35 games (0.77 PPG), while Annecy have gone 10W 11D 14L in their last 35 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Annecy away?
Niort's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.00 PPG; Annecy away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Niort or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Annecy in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from July 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 20 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Niort
1
Draws
0
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Niort vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Annecy?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Niort have won 1, Annecy have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Niort and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 May 2023: Niort 2-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Niort and Annecy?
Niort have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Niort 65%, Annecy 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Niort and 59% for Annecy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Niort have failed to score in 35% of games; Annecy in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Niort vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Niort and Annecy matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Niort's games and 47% of Annecy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Niort and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Niort's matches and 59% of Annecy's.
Do Niort and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Niort's recent matches and 76% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Niort and Annecy share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 36, as Niort and Annecy drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 1.93 xG and Annecy 1.49 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 0.97 / defence 1.53 against Annecy attack 0.90 / defence 1.52, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 48% | Draw 23% | Annecy 30%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 57%, Annecy 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Annecy's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Niort 0.77 PPG, Annecy 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Niort (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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