Nimes 1-2 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Niort at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nimes vs Niort encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Nimes welcome Niort to Stade des Costières. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nimes — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nimes have posted 1W 3D 2L at Stade des Costières — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Niort have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Niort have posted 2W 2D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.14 PPG. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Niort — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Nimes in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Niort in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 54% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Nimes 46% | Niort 23%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 46% | Niort 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 0.93 xG and Niort 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 0.832 / defence 1.280 | Niort attack 0.840 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 0.922 / away 1.056. Niort bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Nimes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Nimes games / 13 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 28% | Draw 33% | Niort 39%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Niort 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Niort are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Niort offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Nimes 33% | Niort 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 28% | Draw 33% | Niort 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Nimes 0.93 / Niort 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 0.832 / def 1.280 | Niort attack 0.840 / def 1.211 | league avg home 0.922 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Niort (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Niort xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Niort kick off?
Nimes vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Niort?
Nimes 1 - 2 Niort.
Where is Nimes vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Niort part of?
Nimes vs Niort is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 28% chance of winning, Niort a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Niort the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Nimes and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Niort?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nimes and Niort in?
Nimes (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Niort (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nimes's attack at 0.83x the league average against Niort's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Niort's attack versus Nimes's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
28%
3.53
33%
3.06
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Nimes xG
Total xG
2.06
1.14
Niort xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 14.4 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Nimes and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Nimes and 1.14 for Niort, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nimes come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 5D 5L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Niort sit at 1.38 PPG from 13 outings (5W 3D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nimes on 1.08 PPG, Niort on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nimes's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Niort have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Nimes are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 1.00 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Niort in 23%.
Defensively: Niort in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Niort in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 3W 5D 5L in their last 13 games (1.08 PPG), while Niort have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Niort away?
Niort's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.00 PPG; Niort away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Nimes or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Niort in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nimes and Niort runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nimes's record when hosting Niort specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nimes
2
Draws
1
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Niort?
From 4 meetings on record, Nimes have won 1, Niort have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Nimes 3-2 Niort.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nimes see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Nimes 33% BTTS, Niort 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Nimes) and 67% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Nimes keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Niort in 33%; Nimes have failed to score in 67% of games; Niort in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Nimes's recent matches and 33% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nimes vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Nimes's recent games and 67% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Niort tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Niort in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Niort edge out Nimes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort beat Nimes 1-2 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 0.93 xG and Niort 1.14 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Niort outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 0.83 / defence 1.28 against Niort attack 0.84 / defence 1.21, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 28% | Draw 33% | Niort 39%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 46%, Niort 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Niort's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nimes 1.08 PPG, Niort 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Niort win broke the near-deadlock. Nimes (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Niort (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.