Nimes 0-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nimes at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nimes vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nimes and Dunkerque meet at Stade des Costières in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Nimes (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade des Costières, Nimes have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade des Costières this season.
Dunkerque's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Nimes's 1.80 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Dunkerque's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Nimes, 0 for Dunkerque and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with Nimes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Nimes half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Dunkerque half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 54% versus Dunkerque 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 59% | Dunkerque 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 1.41 xG and Dunkerque 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 1.012 / defence 1.324 | Dunkerque attack 0.723 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 0.997 / away 1.013. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.400 — this is suppressing Nimes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Nimes games / 22 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 46% | Draw 29% | Dunkerque 25%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Dunkerque 4.00. Nimes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nimes are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nimes if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nimes 60% | Dunkerque 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 46% | Draw 29% | Dunkerque 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Nimes 1.41 / Dunkerque 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 1.012 / def 1.324 | Dunkerque attack 0.723 / def 1.400 | league avg home 0.997 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Nimes (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Dunkerque xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Dunkerque kick off?
Nimes vs Dunkerque kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Dunkerque?
Nimes 0 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is Nimes vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Dunkerque part of?
Nimes vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 46% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nimes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Nimes and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Dunkerque?
Record (1 meetings): Nimes 1W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 0W.
What form are Nimes and Dunkerque in?
Nimes (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nimes's attack rating (1.01) and Dunkerque's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (0.72x) against Nimes's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nimes Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.49
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Nimes xG
Total xG
2.38
0.97
Dunkerque xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
6%
16.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Nimes and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Nimes and 0.97 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Nimes have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 9W 5D 8L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque's form line: 4W 6D 12L from 22 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Nimes are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dunkerque.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nimes have posted 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nimes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nimes are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.73 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 games (1.45 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 4W 6D 12L in their last 22 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Dunkerque away?
Nimes's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.20 PPG; Dunkerque away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nimes
0
Draws
1
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Dunkerque?
From 2 meetings on record, Nimes have won 1, Dunkerque have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Nimes 0-1 Dunkerque.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 60%, Dunkerque 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Nimes and 60% for Dunkerque. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nimes have failed to score in 40% of games; Dunkerque in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Dunkerque?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Nimes's games and 50% of Dunkerque's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nimes vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Nimes's matches and 60% of Dunkerque's.
Do Nimes and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dunkerque defy the odds to beat Nimes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Nimes 0-1 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 1.41 xG and Dunkerque 0.97 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nimes fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 1.01 / defence 1.32 against Dunkerque attack 0.72 / defence 1.40, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 46% | Draw 29% | Dunkerque 25%, with Nimes to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Dunkerque win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 59%, Dunkerque 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dunkerque's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Nimes arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Dunkerque winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nimes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Dunkerque (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.