Nimes 2-1 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 43%, yet in-form Nimes provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nimes vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nimes host Dijon at Stade des Costières in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 July 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nimes stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Nimes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dijon — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Nimes have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 0.95 xG and Dijon 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 0.982 / defence 1.150 | Dijon attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.845 / away 1.400. Data: 1 Nimes games / 1 Dijon games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nimes 22% | Draw 35% | Dijon 43%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 4.55 | Draw 2.86 | Dijon 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dijon as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nimes (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dijon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 22% | Draw 35% | Dijon 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Nimes 0.95 / Dijon 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 0.982 / def 1.150 | Dijon attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.845 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Dijon (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Dijon xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Dijon kick off?
Nimes vs Dijon kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Dijon?
Nimes 2 - 1 Dijon.
Where is Nimes vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Dijon part of?
Nimes vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 22% chance of winning, Dijon a 43% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Nimes and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Dijon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nimes and Dijon in?
Nimes (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Dijon (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nimes's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Dijon's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Nimes's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
22%
4.48
35%
2.85
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Nimes xG
Total xG
2.32
1.37
Dijon xG
4.48
22%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
39%
2.60
Win to Nil
6%
17.60
16%
6.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 13.4 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Nimes and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Nimes and 1.37 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nimes's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nimes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dijon, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nimes by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dijon heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Nimes are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nimes have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Dijon in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Early Season
Dijon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Dijon in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Dijon have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nimes and Dijon runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dijon go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Nimes's record when hosting Dijon specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nimes
0
Draws
2
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Nimes have won 2, Dijon have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2023, when Nimes 1-2 Dijon.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Nimes's games and 100% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nimes vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Nimes's recent games and 100% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Dijon tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dijon in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nimes defy the odds to beat Dijon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes beat Dijon 2-1 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 0.95 xG and Dijon 1.37 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Nimes beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Dijon attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 22% | Draw 35% | Dijon 43%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Nimes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 0%, Dijon 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Nimes arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Nimes scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Dijon conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.