Nantes 2-5 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantes vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rodez make the trip to Stade de la Beaujoire to face Nantes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Nantes (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Nantes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nantes's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Stade de la Beaujoire this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Rodez's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rodez away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rodez are 1.50 PPG clear of Nantes in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.10 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Nantes — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Rodez — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 46% versus Rodez 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 46% | Rodez 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 0.87 xG and Rodez 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.731 / defence 1.111 | Rodez attack 0.928 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.082. Nantes's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Nantes games / 36 Rodez games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nantes 28% | Draw 31% | Rodez 41%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Rodez 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Nantes 50% | Rodez 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 28% | Draw 31% | Rodez 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Nantes 0.87 / Rodez 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.731 / def 1.111 | Rodez attack 0.928 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Rodez (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Rodez xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Rodez kick off?
Nantes vs Rodez kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Stade de la Beaujoire.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Rodez?
Nantes 2 - 5 Rodez.
Where is Nantes vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire.
What competition is Nantes vs Rodez part of?
Nantes vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 28% chance of winning, Rodez a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Nantes and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Rodez?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nantes and Rodez in?
Nantes (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Rodez (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nantes's attack at 0.73x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.93x) against Nantes's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
28%
3.60
31%
3.18
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Nantes xG
Total xG
1.98
1.12
Rodez xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
9%
10.99
17%
5.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 15.3 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Nantes and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Nantes and 1.12 for Rodez, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nantes come into this having played 35 games, going 5W 8D 22L for 0.66 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Nantes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.80 PPG from 35 outings (17W 12D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rodez carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of Nantes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Nantes's home form reads 3W 3D 11L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.47 points per game from 17 outings (6W 7D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nantes are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.43 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 71%.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Rodez in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 5W 8D 22L in their last 35 games (0.66 PPG), while Rodez have gone 17W 12D 6L in their last 35 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 0.71 PPG; Rodez away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Nantes
0
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Rodez?
From 1 meetings on record, Nantes have won 0, Rodez have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Nantes 2-5 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 47%, Rodez 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Nantes) and 53% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 35% of games; Rodez in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Nantes's games and 71% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nantes vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Nantes's recent games and 53% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Rodez tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Rodez in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rodez run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Nantes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Nantes 2-5 at Stade de la Beaujoire, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 0.87 xG and Rodez 1.12 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Nantes beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rodez outscored their 1.12 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.73 / defence 1.11 against Rodez attack 0.93 / defence 1.04, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 28% | Draw 31% | Rodez 41%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 46%, Rodez 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rodez arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.66. That form edge translated into the three points. Nantes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.