Nancy 1-1 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nancy vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nancy and Caen meet at Stade Marcel-Picot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nancy have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nancy's home record at Stade Marcel-Picot: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Caen's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Caen have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Nancy, 1 for Caen and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Caen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Nancy half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Caen half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 59% versus Caen 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nancy 54% | Caen 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 1.06 xG and Caen 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.795 / defence 1.462 | Caen attack 1.048 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 0.997 / away 1.013. Nancy's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Caen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing Nancy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Nancy games / 22 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 25% | Draw 27% | Caen 48%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Caen 2.08. Caen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Caen as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Caen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nancy 50% | Caen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Picot • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 25% | Draw 27% | Caen 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Nancy 1.06 / Caen 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.795 / def 1.462 | Caen attack 1.048 / def 1.341 | league avg home 0.997 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Caen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Caen xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Caen kick off?
Nancy vs Caen kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Caen?
Nancy 1 - 1 Caen.
Where is Nancy vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Caen part of?
Nancy vs Caen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 25% chance of winning, Caen a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Nancy and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Caen?
Record (1 meetings): Nancy 0W | Draws 0 | Caen 1W.
What form are Nancy and Caen in?
Nancy (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Caen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Nancy's attack rating (0.80) and Caen's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Caen's attack (1.05x) against Nancy's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
25%
3.98
27%
3.70
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.62
1.55
Caen xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
5%
18.80
17%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Nancy and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Nancy and 1.55 for Caen, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Nancy have picked up 0.68 PPG on a 3W 6D 13L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Caen's form line: 6W 7D 9L from 22 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Caen are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nancy.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nancy have posted 0.90 PPG from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L).
On the road, Caen have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nancy are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.18 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Blended
Caen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Caen in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 3W 6D 13L in their last 22 games (0.68 PPG), while Caen have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Caen away?
Caen's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 0.90 PPG; Caen away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Nancy or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Caen in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nancy
1
Draws
1
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Caen?
From 2 meetings on record, Nancy have won 0, Caen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Nancy 1-1 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and Caen?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 50%, Caen 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nancy) and 40% (Caen).
On the defensive side: Nancy have failed to score in 50% of games; Caen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Caen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Nancy's games and 60% of Caen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nancy vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nancy's recent games and 40% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Caen tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Caen in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nancy and Caen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nancy and Caen finished level at 1-1 at Stade Marcel-Picot, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.06 xG and Caen 1.55 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.80 / defence 1.46 against Caen attack 1.05 / defence 1.34, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 25% | Draw 27% | Caen 48%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 54%, Caen 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Caen's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Caen arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nancy (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.