Montpellier vs Annecy – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Montpellier at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Montpellier vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Montpellier and Annecy meet at Stade de la Mosson in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 March 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Montpellier have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier's home record at Stade de la Mosson: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de la Mosson.
Annecy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Montpellier, 1.30 for Annecy — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Montpellier 1W, Annecy 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Montpellier goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 40% versus Annecy 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 26% | Annecy 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.21 xG and Annecy 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 0.953 / defence 0.690 | Annecy attack 0.971 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Montpellier's defence rating of 0.690 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Montpellier games / 43 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Montpellier 43% | Draw 31% | Annecy 26%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Annecy 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Montpellier as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Montpellier if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Montpellier 50% | Annecy 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson • Kick-off: Friday 5 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 43% | Draw 31% | Annecy 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Montpellier 1.21 / Annecy 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 0.953 / def 0.690 | Annecy attack 0.971 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Annecy xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Annecy kick off?
Montpellier vs Annecy is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 5 March 2027 at Stade de la Mosson.
Where is Montpellier vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson.
What competition is Montpellier vs Annecy part of?
Montpellier vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 43% chance of winning, Annecy a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Montpellier and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Annecy?
Record (2 meetings): Montpellier 1W | Draws 1 | Annecy 0W.
What form are Montpellier and Annecy in?
Montpellier (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Annecy (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Montpellier's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (0.97x) against Montpellier's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
43%
2.32
31%
3.26
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Montpellier xG
Total xG
2.09
0.88
Annecy xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
8%
12.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Montpellier and 0.88 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Montpellier's recent record stands at 18W 12D 12L from 42 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 15L across 42 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Montpellier against 1.55 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Montpellier have managed 10W 6D 5L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 11W 1D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Montpellier are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Montpellier and Annecy in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 18W 12D 12L in their last 42 games (1.57 PPG), while Annecy have gone 19W 8D 15L in their last 42 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Annecy away?
Montpellier's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.71 PPG; Annecy away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Montpellier or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Annecy in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Montpellier
1
Draws
0
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Annecy?
From 2 meetings on record, Montpellier have won 1, Annecy have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Annecy 0-0 Montpellier.
Who has won more matches between Montpellier and Annecy?
Montpellier have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 52%, Annecy 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Montpellier) and 62% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Montpellier keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Annecy in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Montpellier play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Montpellier's recent matches and 48% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Montpellier vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Montpellier's recent games and 62% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Montpellier and Annecy tend to score early?
Montpellier have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Annecy in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.