Metz 0-0 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sochaux at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Metz vs Sochaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Metz welcome Sochaux to Stade Saint-Symphorien. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Metz stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Metz have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade Saint-Symphorien — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Saint-Symphorien. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Metz are significantly better at Stade Saint-Symphorien than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Sochaux have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sochaux's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Sochaux's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Metz's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Metz trading profile (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Sochaux trading profile (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 47% versus Sochaux 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 49% | Sochaux 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.14 xG and Sochaux 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 1.083 / defence 1.228 | Sochaux attack 1.156 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.147. Data: 11 Metz games / 49 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 27% | Draw 25% | Sochaux 49%. Fair-value odds: Metz 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Sochaux 2.04. Sochaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sochaux as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sochaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Metz 40% | Sochaux 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 27% | Draw 25% | Sochaux 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Metz 1.14 / Sochaux 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 1.083 / def 1.228 | Sochaux attack 1.156 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Sochaux xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Sochaux kick off?
Metz vs Sochaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Sochaux?
Metz 0 - 0 Sochaux.
Where is Metz vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Sochaux part of?
Metz vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 27% chance of winning, Sochaux a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Metz and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Sochaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Metz and Sochaux in?
Metz (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Sochaux (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Metz's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Sochaux's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Sochaux's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
27%
3.74
25%
4.07
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Metz xG
Total xG
2.77
1.63
Sochaux xG
3.74
27%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
5%
19.03
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Metz and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Metz and 1.63 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Metz have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 10W 15D 24L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sochaux's form line: 26W 13D 10L from 49 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sochaux are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Metz.
Venue Form
On home soil, Metz have posted 1.04 PPG from 25 outings (6W 8D 11L).
On the road, Sochaux have gone 12W 6D 7L from 25 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Metz are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 1.35 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Sochaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 10W 15D 24L in their last 49 games (0.92 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 26W 13D 10L in their last 49 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Sochaux away?
Sochaux's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.04 PPG; Sochaux away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Metz or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Sochaux in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Metz
1
Draws
0
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Sochaux?
From 2 meetings on record, Metz have won 1, Sochaux have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2023, when Sochaux 0-1 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Sochaux?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 52%, Sochaux 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Metz) and 48% (Sochaux).
On the defensive side: Sochaux in 40%; Metz have failed to score in 32% of games; Sochaux in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Metz's recent matches and 48% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Metz's recent games and 48% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Sochaux tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Metz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz and Sochaux finished level at 0-0 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.14 xG and Sochaux 1.63 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Metz fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sochaux landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 1.08 / defence 1.23 against Sochaux attack 1.16 / defence 0.87, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 27% | Draw 25% | Sochaux 49%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 49%, Sochaux 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sochaux's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Sochaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.