Metz 0-0 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Metz at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Metz vs Caen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Caen make the trip to Stade Saint-Symphorien to face Metz in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Monday 13 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Metz's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz at Stade Saint-Symphorien this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Saint-Symphorien. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Saint-Symphorien this season.
Caen have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Caen have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Metz's 2.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Caen's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Metz lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Caen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Metz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Caen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 47% versus Caen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 45% | Caen 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.25 xG and Caen 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.959 / defence 1.010 | Caen attack 0.877 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.056. Data: 22 Metz games / 60 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 43% | Draw 30% | Caen 27%. Fair-value odds: Metz 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Caen 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Metz as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Metz if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Metz 40% | Caen 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Monday 13 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 43% | Draw 30% | Caen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Metz 1.25 / Caen 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.959 / def 1.010 | Caen attack 0.877 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Metz (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Metz xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Caen xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Caen kick off?
Metz vs Caen kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 13 February 2023 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Caen?
Metz 0 - 0 Caen.
Where is Metz vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Caen part of?
Metz vs Caen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 43% chance of winning, Caen a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Metz and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Caen?
Record (1 meetings): Metz 0W | Draws 0 | Caen 1W.
What form are Metz and Caen in?
Metz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Caen (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Metz's attack at 0.96x the league average against Caen's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Caen's attack (0.88x) against Metz's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
43%
2.33
30%
3.33
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Metz xG
Total xG
2.19
0.94
Caen xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
8%
12.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Metz and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Metz and 0.94 for Caen, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Metz's recent record stands at 16W 19D 25L from 60 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Caen, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 20L across 60 games — 1.37 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Metz against 1.37 for Caen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Metz have managed 8W 11D 11L from 30 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Caen's away record stands at 6W 12D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Metz are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.28 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Caen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Caen in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 16W 19D 25L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Caen have gone 21W 19D 20L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Caen away?
Metz's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.17 PPG; Caen away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Metz have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Caen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Metz
2
Draws
1
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Caen?
From 4 meetings on record, Metz have won 1, Caen have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Caen 2-2 Metz.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Caen see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 50%, Caen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Metz) and 33% (Caen).
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Metz have failed to score in 33% of games; Caen in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Metz's recent matches and 53% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Metz's recent games and 33% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Caen tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Caen in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Metz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz and Caen finished level at 0-0 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.25 xG and Caen 0.94 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Metz fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Caen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.96 / defence 1.01 against Caen attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 43% | Draw 30% | Caen 27%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 45%, Caen 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Caen's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 1.12 PPG, Caen 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.