Metz 5-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Metz at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Metz vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Annecy make the trip to Stade Saint-Symphorien to face Metz in Ligue 2 (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Saturday 8 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Metz have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Metz's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Metz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Annecy (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Annecy's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Metz's favour (1.90 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Metz, 0 for Annecy and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2024, ended Metz 0–0 Annecy — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Metz half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 52% versus Annecy 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 49% | Annecy 51%). Note also that Annecy surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Metz recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.42 xG and Annecy 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 1.144 / defence 0.855 | Annecy attack 0.868 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.073. Data: built from Metz's last 25 games and Annecy's last 63.
Result probabilities: Metz 52% | Draw 27% | Annecy 21%. Fair-value odds: Metz 1.93 | Draw 3.68 | Annecy 4.76. Metz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Metz at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Metz if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Metz 30% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 52% | Draw 27% | Annecy 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Metz 1.42 / Annecy 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 1.144 / def 0.855 | Annecy attack 0.868 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Metz (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Metz xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Annecy xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Metz vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Metz vs Annecy kick off?
Metz vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Annecy?
Metz 5 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Metz vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Annecy part of?
Metz vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 52% chance of winning, Annecy a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Metz and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Metz vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Metz's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (0.87x) against Metz's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from Metz's last 25 games and Annecy's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.68
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Metz xG
Total xG
2.22
0.80
Annecy xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
5%
19.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Metz vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Metz and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Metz and 0.80 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Metz's recent record stands at 21W 14D 26L from 61 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 23W 15D 23L across 61 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Metz against 1.38 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Metz have managed 11W 8D 12L from their last 31 home games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 11W 8D 12L across their last 31 away games, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Metz are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.30 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Annecy
Blended
Metz (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Metz
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Metz vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Metz and Annecy in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 21W 14D 26L in their last 61 games (1.26 PPG), while Annecy have gone 23W 15D 23L in their last 61 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Annecy away?
Metz's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.32 PPG; Annecy away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Metz or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Annecy in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Metz and Annecy, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Metz won Metz 5-1 Annecy on 8 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Metz have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Metz
3
Draws
0
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Metz vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Annecy?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Metz have won 2, Annecy have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Annecy 1-1 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Annecy?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 52%, Annecy 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Metz) and 55% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Metz have failed to score in 29% of games; Annecy in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Metz vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Metz and Annecy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Metz's recent matches and 55% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Metz and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Metz's recent games and 55% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Metz's recent matches and 64% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Metz run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Annecy 5-1 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.42 xG and Annecy 0.80 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Metz beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 1.14 / defence 0.85 against Annecy attack 0.87 / defence 1.00, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 52% | Draw 27% | Annecy 21%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 49%, Annecy 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Annecy's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 1.26 PPG, Annecy 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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