Le Mans 3-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Le Mans face Annecy.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Annecy make the trip to Stade Marie-Marvingt to face Le Mans in Ligue 2 (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Le Mans's record over their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Le Mans's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 5D 0L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Annecy (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Annecy's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Le Mans edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Dec 2025, ended Le Mans 2–1 Annecy — a Le Mans win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Le Mans — key trading statistics (last 25 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 23% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Annecy — key trading statistics (last 25 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Mans 52% versus Annecy 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Mans 32% | Annecy 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Mans 0.82 xG and Annecy 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Mans attack 0.763 / defence 0.768 | Annecy attack 1.118 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.201. Le Mans's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Le Mans have a tight defence (rating 0.768), which is pulling Annecy's projected output down. Data: built from Le Mans's last 25 games and Annecy's last 59.
Result probabilities: Le Mans 27% | Draw 34% | Annecy 39%. Fair-value odds: Le Mans 3.67 | Draw 2.94 | Annecy 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Le Mans's last 10 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Le Mans 30% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Mans vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade Marie-Marvingt • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Mans 27% | Draw 34% | Annecy 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Le Mans 0.82 / Annecy 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Le Mans attack 0.763 / def 0.768 | Annecy attack 1.118 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Annecy (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Le Mans xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Annecy xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Le Mans vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Le Mans vs Annecy kick off?
Le Mans vs Annecy kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Stade Marie-Marvingt.
What was the final score in Le Mans vs Annecy?
Le Mans 3 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Le Mans vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marie-Marvingt.
What competition is Le Mans vs Annecy part of?
Le Mans vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Mans vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Le Mans a 27% chance of winning, Annecy a 39% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Mans vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Le Mans and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Le Mans vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Le Mans's attack at 0.76x the league average against Annecy's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (1.12x) against Le Mans's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Le Mans's last 25 games and Annecy's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
27%
3.67
34%
2.94
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Le Mans xG
Total xG
1.85
1.03
Annecy xG
3.67
27%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
10%
10.30
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 16.2 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Le Mans vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Mans vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Le Mans and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Le Mans and 1.03 for Annecy, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Mans vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Le Mans's recent record stands at 10W 11D 4L from 25 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 8L across 25 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Le Mans against 1.56 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Le Mans have managed 6W 5D 2L from their last 13 home games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 6W 1D 6L across their last 13 away games, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Mans are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.36 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Le Mans have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Annecy in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Mans
Blended
Annecy
Blended
Le Mans (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Le Mans
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Le Mans vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Le Mans and Annecy in coming into this match?
Le Mans have gone 10W 11D 4L in their last 25 games (1.64 PPG), while Annecy have gone 11W 6D 8L in their last 25 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Mans at home or Annecy away?
Le Mans's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Mans at home: 1.77 PPG; Annecy away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Le Mans or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Mans have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Annecy in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Le Mans
0
Draws
0
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Le Mans vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Le Mans and Annecy?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Le Mans have won 2, Annecy have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Le Mans and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Le Mans 3-0 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Le Mans and Annecy?
Le Mans have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Mans's games tend to start slowly — only 23% have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 31% (Le Mans) and 38% (Annecy) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for Le Mans and 46% for Annecy.
On the defensive side: Le Mans keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Annecy in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Mans home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Le Mans vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Le Mans and Annecy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Le Mans's recent matches and 38% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Le Mans and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of Le Mans's recent games and 46% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Mans and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 23% of Le Mans's recent matches and 77% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Le Mans run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Mans beat Annecy 3-0 at Stade Marie-Marvingt, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Mans 0.82 xG and Annecy 1.03 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Le Mans beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Annecy landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Mans attack 0.76 / defence 0.77 against Annecy attack 1.12 / defence 0.96, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Mans 27% | Draw 34% | Annecy 39%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Le Mans win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Mans 32%, Annecy 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Mans's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Annecy's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Mans 1.64 PPG, Annecy 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Mans win broke the near-deadlock. Le Mans (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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