Le Havre 2-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Le Havre at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Dunkerque travel to Stade Océane to take on Le Havre. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 April 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Le Havre — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Le Havre at 0.80 PPG versus Dunkerque's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Le Havre's 30% rate and Dunkerque's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Le Havre, 1 for Dunkerque and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Dunkerque winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Le Havre in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 39% versus Dunkerque 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 32% | Dunkerque 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.01 xG and Dunkerque 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.782 / defence 1.421 | Dunkerque attack 0.643 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 0.967. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Le Havre games / 31 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 36% | Draw 34% | Dunkerque 29%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Dunkerque 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 30% | Dunkerque 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 36% | Draw 34% | Dunkerque 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Le Havre 1.01 / Dunkerque 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.782 / def 1.421 | Dunkerque attack 0.643 / def 1.314 | league avg home 0.988 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Dunkerque xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Dunkerque kick off?
Le Havre vs Dunkerque kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Dunkerque?
Le Havre 2 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is Le Havre vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Dunkerque part of?
Le Havre vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 36% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Le Havre and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Dunkerque?
Record (1 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 1W.
What form are Le Havre and Dunkerque in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.78) and Dunkerque's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
36%
2.75
34%
2.92
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.90
0.88
Dunkerque xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
11%
9.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.88 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre's recent record stands at 10W 11D 10L from 31 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 17L across 31 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.32 PPG, Dunkerque on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Le Havre have managed 5W 4D 6L from 15 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 3W 1D 11L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.77 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Current Season
Dunkerque
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 10W 11D 10L in their last 31 games (1.32 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 8W 6D 17L in their last 31 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Dunkerque away?
Le Havre's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.27 PPG; Dunkerque away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Dunkerque runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Le Havre
0
Draws
1
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Dunkerque?
From 2 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Dunkerque have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when Le Havre 2-1 Dunkerque.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 40%, Dunkerque 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Le Havre) and 47% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 33% of games; Dunkerque in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Le Havre's recent matches and 40% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Le Havre's recent games and 47% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Le Havre edge out Dunkerque 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Dunkerque 2-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.01 xG and Dunkerque 0.88 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.78 / defence 1.42 against Dunkerque attack 0.64 / defence 1.31, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 36% | Draw 34% | Dunkerque 29%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 32%, Dunkerque 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Dunkerque's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.32 PPG, Dunkerque 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.