Le Havre 2-4 Caen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Caen at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 30 as Le Havre welcome Caen to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Stade Océane, Le Havre have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Caen — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Caen's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Le Havre 0.90 PPG, Caen 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Le Havre, 0 for Caen and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Le Havre in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Caen in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 34% versus Caen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 28% | Caen 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.84 xG and Caen 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.681 / defence 1.214 | Caen attack 0.858 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 0.999 / away 0.885. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.681 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Caen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Le Havre games / 29 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 31% | Draw 34% | Caen 35%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Caen 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Le Havre's lower xG of 0.84 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Caen as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Caen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.76 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 20% | Caen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 31% | Draw 34% | Caen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Le Havre 0.84 / Caen 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.681 / def 1.214 | Caen attack 0.858 / def 1.230 | league avg home 0.999 / away 0.885 • Poisson stance: Caen (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Caen xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Caen kick off?
Le Havre vs Caen kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Caen?
Le Havre 2 - 4 Caen.
Where is Le Havre vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Caen part of?
Le Havre vs Caen is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 31% chance of winning, Caen a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Le Havre and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Caen?
Record (1 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 1 | Caen 0W.
What form are Le Havre and Caen in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Caen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Caen's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, Caen's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
31%
3.28
34%
2.92
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.76
0.92
Caen xG
3.28
31%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 15.9 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.92 for Caen, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 10W 11D 8L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Caen's form line: 9W 9D 11L from 29 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.41 PPG, Caen on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.36 PPG from 14 outings (5W 4D 5L).
On the road, Caen have gone 2W 8D 4L from 14 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.31 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Current Season
Caen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Caen in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 10W 11D 8L in their last 29 games (1.41 PPG), while Caen have gone 9W 9D 11L in their last 29 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Caen away?
Le Havre's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.36 PPG; Caen away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Caen in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Caen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Le Havre have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Le Havre's record when hosting Caen specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Le Havre
1
Draws
1
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Caen?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 2, Caen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Caen 1-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Caen?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Caen see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 36%, Caen 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Le Havre and 29% for Caen.
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 36% of games; Caen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Le Havre's recent matches and 57% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Le Havre's recent games and 29% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Caen tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Caen in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Caen cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Le Havre 2-4 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.84 xG and Caen 0.92 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Caen outscored their 0.92 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.68 / defence 1.21 against Caen attack 0.86 / defence 1.23, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 31% | Draw 34% | Caen 35%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 28%, Caen 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Caen's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.41 PPG, Caen 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Caen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.