Laval 1-2 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Laval welcome Guingamp to Stade Francis Le Basser. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Laval — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Laval have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Laval have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 2.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.03 xG and Guingamp 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.868 / defence 1.150 | Guingamp attack 1.134 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 0.981. Data: 1 Laval games / 39 Guingamp games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Laval 28% | Draw 32% | Guingamp 40%. Fair-value odds: Laval 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Guingamp 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Laval (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 28% | Draw 32% | Guingamp 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Laval 1.03 / Guingamp 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.868 / def 1.150 | Guingamp attack 1.134 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.145 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Guingamp xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Guingamp kick off?
Laval vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Guingamp?
Laval 1 - 2 Guingamp.
Where is Laval vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Guingamp part of?
Laval vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 28% chance of winning, Guingamp a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Laval and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Guingamp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Laval and Guingamp in?
Laval (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Guingamp (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Laval's attack rating (0.87) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
28%
3.61
32%
3.08
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Laval xG
Total xG
2.31
1.28
Guingamp xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
8%
12.97
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Laval and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Laval and 1.28 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Laval have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Laval, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Laval on 3.00 PPG, Guingamp on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Laval are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 4.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Laval's scoring rate against Guingamp's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Laval have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Guingamp in 0%.
Defensively: Laval have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Guingamp in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Laval or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Guingamp in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Laval and Guingamp runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Laval's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Laval
1
Draws
5
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Guingamp?
From 8 meetings on record, Laval have won 2, Guingamp have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Laval 2-2 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Laval's recent matches and 0% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Laval vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Laval's recent games and 100% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Guingamp tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Laval 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Laval 1-2 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.03 xG and Guingamp 1.28 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Guingamp attack 1.13 / defence 1.04, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Laval 28% | Draw 32% | Guingamp 40%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 0%, Guingamp 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 3.00 PPG, Guingamp 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Laval managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp managed 2 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.