Laval 0-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Laval at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Laval vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Laval welcome Annecy to Stade Francis Le Basser in Ligue 2 (matchday 22). Kick-off is Friday 7 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Laval stand at 5W 5D 0L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Laval's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Annecy have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Annecy's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Laval are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Laval's games and 60% of Annecy's (from Laval's last 10 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Laval have won 2, Annecy 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2024, ended Laval 0–2 Annecy — a Annecy win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Laval in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Annecy in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 51% versus Annecy 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 42% | Annecy 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.28 xG and Annecy 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.016 / defence 0.940 | Annecy attack 1.013 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.008. Data: built from Laval's last 59 games and Annecy's last 59.
Result probabilities: Laval 44% | Draw 28% | Annecy 28%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.29 | Draw 3.52 | Annecy 3.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Laval are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Laval offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Laval 60% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 22 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 7 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 44% | Draw 28% | Annecy 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Laval 1.28 / Annecy 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.016 / def 0.940 | Annecy attack 1.013 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Laval (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Laval xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Annecy xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Laval vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Laval vs Annecy kick off?
Laval vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 7 February 2025 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Annecy?
Laval 0 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Laval vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Annecy part of?
Laval vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 44% chance of winning, Annecy a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Laval and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Laval vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Laval's attack rating (1.02) and Annecy's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Laval's last 59 games and Annecy's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.52
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Laval xG
Total xG
2.24
0.96
Annecy xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Laval vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Laval and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Laval and 0.96 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Laval come into this having played 59 games, going 24W 17D 18L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.34 PPG from 59 outings (21W 16D 22L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Laval on 1.51 PPG, Annecy on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Laval's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across their last 29 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 29 away games (10W 8D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Laval are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Annecy
Blended
Laval (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Laval
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Laval vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Laval and Annecy in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 24W 17D 18L in their last 59 games (1.51 PPG), while Annecy have gone 21W 16D 22L in their last 59 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Annecy away?
Laval's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.41 PPG; Annecy away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Laval or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Annecy in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 13 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Apr 2024, when Annecy won Laval 0-3 Annecy.
Laval's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Laval
3
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Laval vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Annecy?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Laval have won 2, Annecy have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2026: Laval 2-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 62%, Annecy 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Laval) and 59% (Annecy).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Laval vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Laval and Annecy matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Laval's games and 59% of Annecy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Laval and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Laval's recent games and 59% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Laval's recent matches and 66% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat Laval 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Laval 0-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.28 xG and Annecy 0.96 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Laval fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Annecy attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 44% | Draw 28% | Annecy 28%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 42%, Annecy 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.51 PPG, Annecy 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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