Laval 1-1 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Laval at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Laval face Ajaccio.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ajaccio travel to Stade Francis Le Basser to take on Laval in Ligue 2 (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Laval stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Laval's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ajaccio — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Ajaccio have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Laval at 1.10 PPG versus Ajaccio's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Laval, 1 for Ajaccio and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2023, ended Laval 0–2 Ajaccio — a Ajaccio win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Laval trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Ajaccio trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 48% versus Ajaccio 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 50% | Ajaccio 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.50 xG and Ajaccio 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.937 / defence 1.281 | Ajaccio attack 0.588 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.102. Ajaccio's defence rating of 1.291 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Laval's projected output up. Ajaccio's attack rating of 0.588 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Laval's defence rating of 1.281 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ajaccio's projected output up. Data: built from Laval's last 62 games and Ajaccio's last 24.
Result probabilities: Laval 53% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 21%. Fair-value odds: Laval 1.88 | Draw 3.82 | Ajaccio 4.82. Laval hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Laval as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Laval offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Laval 70% (last 10 home games) | Ajaccio 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 25 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 53% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Laval 1.50 / Ajaccio 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.937 / def 1.281 | Ajaccio attack 0.588 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Laval (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Laval xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Ajaccio xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Laval vs Ajaccio FAQs
What time does Laval vs Ajaccio kick off?
Laval vs Ajaccio kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Ajaccio?
Laval 1 - 1 Ajaccio.
Where is Laval vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Ajaccio part of?
Laval vs Ajaccio is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 25) (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 53% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Laval and Ajaccio will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Laval vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Laval's attack at 0.94x the league average against Ajaccio's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Laval's last 62 games and Ajaccio's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.82
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Laval xG
Total xG
2.33
0.83
Ajaccio xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
5%
21.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.1 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Laval vs Ajaccio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Laval and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Laval and 0.83 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Laval's recent record stands at 25W 11D 26L from 62 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Ajaccio, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 34L across 62 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Laval on 1.39 PPG, Ajaccio on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Laval have managed 14W 5D 12L from their last 31 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajaccio's away record stands at 5W 4D 22L across their last 31 away games, a 0.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Laval come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Laval are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.77 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
Laval (Home) vs Ajaccio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Laval
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Laval vs Ajaccio Form FAQs
What form are Laval and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 25W 11D 26L in their last 62 games (1.39 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 17W 11D 34L in their last 62 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Ajaccio away?
Laval's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.52 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.61 PPG.
Have Laval or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 14 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Feb 2025, when Ajaccio won Ajaccio 3-0 Laval.
Laval's record when hosting Ajaccio specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Laval
2
Draws
2
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Laval vs Ajaccio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Ajaccio?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Laval have won 0, Ajaccio have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Ajaccio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2025: Ajaccio 3-0 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Ajaccio?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 58%, Ajaccio 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Laval) and 58% (Ajaccio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Laval vs Ajaccio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Laval and Ajaccio matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Laval's recent matches and 36% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Laval and Ajaccio matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Laval's matches and 58% of Ajaccio's.
Do Laval and Ajaccio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Laval's recent matches and 71% of Ajaccio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Laval and Ajaccio share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 25, as Laval and Ajaccio drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.50 xG and Ajaccio 0.83 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.94 / defence 1.28 against Ajaccio attack 0.59 / defence 1.29, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 53% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 21%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 50%, Ajaccio 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Ajaccio's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.39 PPG, Ajaccio 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ajaccio (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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