Guingamp 4-0 PAU – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Guingamp at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs PAU encounter.

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Match Analysis

Guingamp host PAU at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Guingamp at Stade du Roudourou this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PAU haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

PAU's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Guingamp are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Guingamp register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, PAU in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Guingamp have won 1, PAU 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2022, ended 3–0 with Guingamp winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Guingamp in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

PAU in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 63% versus PAU 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 50% | PAU 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.56 xG and PAU 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.141 / defence 1.023 | PAU attack 0.999 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.083. Data: 38 Guingamp games / 38 PAU games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Guingamp 48% | Draw 25% | PAU 27%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | PAU 3.70. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 70% | PAU 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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