Guingamp 2-0 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 27 as Guingamp welcome Dijon to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 March 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dijon stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Guingamp) versus 0.80 (Dijon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Guingamp register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dijon in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Guingamp, 0 for Dijon and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Dijon trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 61% versus Dijon 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 50% | Dijon 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.44 xG and Dijon 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.021 / defence 1.440 | Dijon attack 0.852 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.039. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Guingamp games / 64 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 40% | Draw 29% | Dijon 32%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Dijon 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 60% | Dijon 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 40% | Draw 29% | Dijon 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Guingamp 1.44 / Dijon 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.021 / def 1.440 | Dijon attack 0.852 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Dijon xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Dijon kick off?
Guingamp vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Dijon?
Guingamp 2 - 0 Dijon.
Where is Guingamp vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Dijon part of?
Guingamp vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 40% chance of winning, Dijon a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Guingamp and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dijon?
Record (3 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 2 | Dijon 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Dijon in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Dijon (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.02x the league average against Dijon's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
40%
2.53
29%
3.50
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.72
1.27
Dijon xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
11%
9.04
8%
13.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.27 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp come into this having played 64 games, going 24W 20D 20L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dijon sit at 1.14 PPG from 64 outings (19W 16D 29L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.44 PPG, Dijon on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Guingamp's home form reads 12W 8D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Dijon have taken 0.84 points per game from 31 outings (6W 8D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.12 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Dijon in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 24W 20D 20L in their last 64 games (1.44 PPG), while Dijon have gone 19W 16D 29L in their last 64 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Dijon away?
Guingamp's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.42 PPG; Dijon away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp's record when hosting Dijon specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Guingamp
2
Draws
0
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Dijon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Guingamp 2-0 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Dijon?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 68%, Dijon 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Guingamp) and 58% (Dijon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dijon in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Guingamp's games and 58% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Guingamp's matches and 58% of Dijon's.
Do Guingamp and Dijon tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dijon in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dijon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Dijon 2-0 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.44 xG and Dijon 1.27 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dijon landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.02 / defence 1.44 against Dijon attack 0.85 / defence 1.21, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 40% | Draw 29% | Dijon 32%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 50%, Dijon 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Dijon's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.44 PPG, Dijon 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.