Guingamp 1-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guingamp host Amiens at Stade de Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Guingamp are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Guingamp, 4 for Amiens and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Amiens trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 53% versus Amiens 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 63% | Amiens 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.52 xG and Amiens 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.983 / defence 0.956 | Amiens attack 0.913 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.178. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Guingamp games / 60 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 47% | Draw 28% | Amiens 24%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Amiens 4.17. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 40% | Amiens 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 47% | Draw 28% | Amiens 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Guingamp 1.52 / Amiens 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.983 / def 0.956 | Amiens attack 0.913 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Amiens xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Amiens kick off?
Guingamp vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Amiens?
Guingamp 1 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Guingamp vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Amiens part of?
Guingamp vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 47% chance of winning, Amiens a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Guingamp and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Amiens?
Record (9 meetings): Guingamp 3W | Draws 2 | Amiens 4W.
What form are Guingamp and Amiens in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Amiens (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Guingamp's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.56
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.55
1.03
Amiens xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
5%
18.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.03 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guingamp come into this having played 60 games, going 25W 13D 22L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.10 PPG from 60 outings (19W 9D 32L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.47 PPG, Amiens on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Guingamp's home form reads 13W 7D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 0.76 points per game from 29 outings (6W 4D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.13 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Amiens in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 25W 13D 22L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while Amiens have gone 19W 9D 32L in their last 60 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Amiens away?
Guingamp's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.59 PPG; Amiens away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Amiens in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Amiens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2022, when Amiens won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Guingamp
2
Draws
4
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Amiens?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Amiens have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Guingamp 1-0 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 45%, Amiens 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Guingamp and 55% for Amiens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Amiens in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Guingamp's recent matches and 52% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Guingamp's matches and 55% of Amiens's.
Do Guingamp and Amiens tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Amiens in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Amiens 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Amiens 1-0 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.52 xG and Amiens 1.03 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Amiens landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Amiens attack 0.91 / defence 1.35, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 47% | Draw 28% | Amiens 24%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 63%, Amiens 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Amiens's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.47 PPG, Amiens 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.