Grenoble 0-2 Boulogne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Grenoble take on Boulogne.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade des Alpes plays host to Grenoble versus Boulogne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 16 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Grenoble (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade des Alpes, Grenoble have gone 2W 7D 1L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade des Alpes.
Boulogne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 0W 6D 4L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boulogne's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Grenoble. A 0.80 PPG lead over Boulogne (1.40 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Grenoble 0W, Boulogne 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Grenoble — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 35% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Boulogne — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 52% versus Boulogne 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 40% | Boulogne 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 0.83 xG and Boulogne 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.818 / defence 0.940 | Boulogne attack 0.704 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.221. Boulogne's defence strength of 0.773 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Grenoble games / 42 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 32% | Draw 37% | Boulogne 31%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 3.12 | Draw 2.70 | Boulogne 3.23. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.64. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.64 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Boulogne's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Grenoble 50% | Boulogne 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 32% | Draw 37% | Boulogne 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 32% | xG Grenoble 0.83 / Boulogne 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.818 / def 0.940 | Boulogne attack 0.704 / def 0.773 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Boulogne xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Boulogne kick off?
Grenoble vs Boulogne kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Boulogne?
Grenoble 0 - 2 Boulogne.
Where is Grenoble vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Boulogne part of?
Grenoble vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 32% chance of winning, Boulogne a 31% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Grenoble and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Boulogne?
Record (2 meetings): Grenoble 0W | Draws 1 | Boulogne 1W.
What form are Grenoble and Boulogne in?
Grenoble (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Boulogne (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 0.82x the league average against Boulogne's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Boulogne's attack (0.70x) against Grenoble's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.09
37%
2.72
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Grenoble xG
Total xG
1.64
0.81
Boulogne xG
3.09
32%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.10
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.4 | 15.7 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.1%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Grenoble and 0.81 for Boulogne, a combined total of 1.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Grenoble have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 10W 17D 15L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boulogne's form line: 9W 15D 18L from 42 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Grenoble against 1.00 for Boulogne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Grenoble have posted 1.35 PPG from 20 outings (5W 12D 3L).
On the road, Boulogne have gone 5W 9D 6L from 20 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Grenoble are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 0.90 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Boulogne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 10W 17D 15L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 9W 15D 18L in their last 42 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Boulogne away?
Grenoble's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.35 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Boulogne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Boulogne in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grenoble have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Boulogne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Grenoble
1
Draws
2
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Boulogne?
From 3 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 0, Boulogne have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Grenoble 0-2 Boulogne.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Boulogne?
Boulogne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 35% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 50%, Boulogne 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Grenoble and 25% for Boulogne.
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Boulogne in 35%; Grenoble have failed to score in 35% of games; Boulogne in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Grenoble's recent matches and 40% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Grenoble's recent games and 25% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Boulogne cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Grenoble.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boulogne beat Grenoble 0-2 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 0.83 xG and Boulogne 0.81 xG, a combined 1.64. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Grenoble fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Boulogne outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.82 / defence 0.94 against Boulogne attack 0.70 / defence 0.77, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 32% | Draw 37% | Boulogne 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Boulogne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 40%, Boulogne 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Boulogne's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.12 PPG, Boulogne 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boulogne win broke the near-deadlock. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Boulogne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.