Grenoble 0-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Grenoble at 55% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grenoble vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grenoble host Annecy at Stade des Alpes in Ligue 2 (matchday 11). Kick-off is Tuesday 29 October 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Grenoble stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Grenoble at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Annecy have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Annecy have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Grenoble at 1.60 PPG versus Annecy's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Grenoble hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Annecy and 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.2 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 20 Apr 2024, ended Grenoble 1–0 Annecy — a Grenoble win.
The head-to-head data gives Grenoble an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Grenoble in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Annecy in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 48% versus Annecy 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 48% | Annecy 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.96 xG and Annecy 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 1.194 / defence 0.830 | Annecy attack 1.289 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.139. Annecy have an above-average attack rating of 1.289, which lifts their away xG to 1.22. Data: built from Grenoble's last 48 games and Annecy's last 48.
Result probabilities: Grenoble 55% | Draw 22% | Annecy 23%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 1.83 | Draw 4.58 | Annecy 4.27. The model has a clear lean to Grenoble (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.96 / 1.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grenoble are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Grenoble 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Grenoble's last 10 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Grenoble 50% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 11 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 October 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 55% | Draw 22% | Annecy 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Grenoble 1.96 / Annecy 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 1.194 / def 0.830 | Annecy attack 1.289 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Annecy xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Grenoble vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Grenoble vs Annecy kick off?
Grenoble vs Annecy kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Tuesday 29 October 2024 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Annecy?
Grenoble 0 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Grenoble vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Annecy part of?
Grenoble vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 11) (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 55% chance of winning, Annecy a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Grenoble and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Grenoble vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 1.19x the league average against Annecy's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Grenoble's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Grenoble's last 48 games and Annecy's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
55%
1.83
22%
4.58
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Grenoble xG
Total xG
3.18
1.22
Annecy xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
3%
30.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Grenoble vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.22 for Annecy, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Annecy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Grenoble come into this having played 48 games, going 18W 13D 17L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.33 PPG from 48 outings (17W 13D 18L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grenoble on 1.40 PPG, Annecy on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Grenoble's home form reads 11W 8D 5L across their last 24 home games, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.29 points per game from their last 24 away games (8W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Grenoble are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.40 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Annecy
Blended
Grenoble (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Grenoble
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Grenoble vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Grenoble and Annecy in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 18W 13D 17L in their last 48 games (1.40 PPG), while Annecy have gone 17W 13D 18L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Annecy away?
Grenoble's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.71 PPG; Annecy away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Annecy in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Grenoble's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Grenoble
3
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Grenoble vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Annecy?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Grenoble have won 3, Annecy have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Grenoble 1-2 Annecy.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 46%, Annecy 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Grenoble) and 62% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Grenoble have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Grenoble vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Grenoble and Annecy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Grenoble's recent matches and 62% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Grenoble and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Grenoble's recent games and 62% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Grenoble's recent matches and 62% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Grenoble's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble and Annecy finished level at 0-0 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.96 xG and Annecy 1.22 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Grenoble fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Annecy landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 1.19 / defence 0.83 against Annecy attack 1.29 / defence 1.16, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 55% | Draw 22% | Annecy 23%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 48%, Annecy 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Annecy's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.40 PPG, Annecy 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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