Estac Troyes 3-0 PAU – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates PAU at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs PAU encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Estac Troyes welcome PAU to Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 2 (matchday 11). Kick-off is Tuesday 29 October 2024 at 19:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Estac Troyes stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Estac Troyes have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, PAU have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

PAU's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. PAU's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Estac Troyes's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Estac Troyes's games and 90% of PAU's (from Estac Troyes's last 10 home games and PAU's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Estac Troyes have won 0, PAU 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Apr 2024, ended Estac Troyes 2–2 PAU — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

PAU in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 54% versus PAU 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 52% | PAU 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.19 xG and PAU 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.783 / defence 1.323 | PAU attack 1.098 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.139. Estac Troyes's attack rating of 0.783 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Estac Troyes's defence rating of 1.323 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PAU's projected output up. Data: built from Estac Troyes's last 48 games and PAU's last 48.

Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 27% | Draw 24% | PAU 48%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 3.64 | Draw 4.12 | PAU 2.07. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Estac Troyes's last 10 home games and PAU's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estac Troyes 60% (last 10 home games) | PAU 90% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights