Estac Troyes 1-2 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Estac Troyes face Dunkerque.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stade de l'Aube plays host to Estac Troyes versus Dunkerque in Ligue 2 (matchday 26). Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form

Estac Troyes (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Estac Troyes at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Dunkerque have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Dunkerque away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Estac Troyes against 1.50 for Dunkerque. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended Estac Troyes 2–2 Dunkerque — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Dunkerque half-time and goal-timing data (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 56% versus Dunkerque 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 52% | Dunkerque 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Estac Troyes surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Dunkerque have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.40 xG and Dunkerque 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.168 / defence 1.181 | Dunkerque attack 0.899 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.105. Data: built from Estac Troyes's last 25 games and Dunkerque's last 25.

Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 42% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 32%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.38 | Draw 3.79 | Dunkerque 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estac Troyes 60% (last 10 home games) | Dunkerque 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights