Dunkerque 2-1 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Dunkerque take on Dijon.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dunkerque host Dijon at Stade Marcel-Tribut in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dunkerque — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade Marcel-Tribut this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Marcel-Tribut. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Dunkerque are significantly better at Stade Marcel-Tribut than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dijon have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dijon have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dijon are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Dunkerque's 20% rate and Dijon's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dunkerque, 1 for Dijon and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Dijon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Dunkerque trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 8% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Dijon trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 36% versus Dijon 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dunkerque 28% | Dijon 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.96 xG and Dijon 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.772 / defence 0.999 | Dijon attack 0.979 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 0.975. Dunkerque's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Dunkerque's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Dunkerque games / 25 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 33% | Draw 34% | Dijon 33%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Dijon 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 20% | Dijon 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 33% | Draw 34% | Dijon 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Dunkerque 0.96 / Dijon 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.772 / def 0.999 | Dijon attack 0.979 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.010 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Dijon xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Dijon kick off?
Dunkerque vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Dijon?
Dunkerque 2 - 1 Dijon.
Where is Dunkerque vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Dijon part of?
Dunkerque vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 33% chance of winning, Dijon a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Dunkerque and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Dijon?
Record (1 meetings): Dunkerque 0W | Draws 0 | Dijon 1W.
What form are Dunkerque and Dijon in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Dijon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dunkerque's attack at 0.77x the league average against Dijon's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
34%
2.94
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
1.92
0.95
Dijon xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 14.1 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Dunkerque and 0.95 for Dijon, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 6W 6D 13L from 25 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dijon, meanwhile, have gone 9W 3D 13L across 25 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dunkerque on 0.96 PPG, Dijon on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 3W 4D 5L from 12 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dijon's away record stands at 4W 1D 7L across 12 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Dunkerque are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.16 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Dijon in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 6W 6D 13L in their last 25 games (0.96 PPG), while Dijon have gone 9W 3D 13L in their last 25 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Dijon away?
Dunkerque's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 1.08 PPG; Dijon away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dunkerque and Dijon runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dunkerque
0
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Dijon?
From 2 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 1, Dijon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when Dunkerque 2-1 Dijon.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dunkerque tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dunkerque 25% BTTS, Dijon 42%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 8% for Dunkerque and 50% for Dijon.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Dijon in 33%; Dunkerque have failed to score in 50% of games; Dijon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 42% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 8% of Dunkerque's recent games and 50% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Dijon tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Dijon in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dunkerque edge out Dijon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Dijon 2-1 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.96 xG and Dijon 0.95 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Dunkerque beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.77 / defence 1.00 against Dijon attack 0.98 / defence 1.23, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 33% | Draw 34% | Dijon 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Dunkerque win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 28%, Dijon 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Dijon's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 0.96 PPG, Dijon 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.