Dunkerque 0-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Amiens at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dunkerque vs Amiens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 35 as Dunkerque welcome Amiens to Stade Marcel-Tribut. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dunkerque — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Dunkerque have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Dunkerque are significantly better at Stade Marcel-Tribut than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Amiens's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Dunkerque's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dunkerque, 1 for Amiens and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 0–3 with Amiens winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dunkerque trading profile (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Amiens trading profile (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 41% versus Amiens 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dunkerque 38% | Amiens 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.02 xG and Amiens 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.795 / defence 1.285 | Amiens attack 0.827 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 0.945 / away 1.027. Dunkerque's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Dunkerque's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Dunkerque games / 34 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 32% | Draw 32% | Amiens 36%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Amiens 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 30% | Amiens 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Friday 22 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 32% | Draw 32% | Amiens 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Dunkerque 1.02 / Amiens 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.795 / def 1.285 | Amiens attack 0.827 / def 1.357 | league avg home 0.945 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Amiens (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Amiens xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Amiens kick off?
Dunkerque vs Amiens kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 22 April 2022 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Amiens?
Dunkerque 0 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Dunkerque vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Amiens part of?
Dunkerque vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 32% chance of winning, Amiens a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Dunkerque and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Amiens?
Record (1 meetings): Dunkerque 0W | Draws 0 | Amiens 1W.
What form are Dunkerque and Amiens in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Amiens (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dunkerque's attack rating (0.80) and Amiens's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
32%
3.12
32%
3.11
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.11
1.09
Amiens xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.09 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 8W 6D 20L from 34 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Amiens, meanwhile, have gone 9W 15D 10L across 34 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dunkerque on 0.88 PPG, Amiens on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 5W 4D 7L from 16 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Amiens's away record stands at 2W 9D 5L across 16 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Dunkerque are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.18 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Amiens in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 8W 6D 20L in their last 34 games (0.88 PPG), while Amiens have gone 9W 15D 10L in their last 34 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Amiens away?
Dunkerque's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 1.19 PPG; Amiens away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Amiens in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Dunkerque have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2025, when Dunkerque won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dunkerque's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Dunkerque
1
Draws
3
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Amiens?
From 8 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 4, Amiens have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Amiens 1-4 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Amiens?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 31%, Amiens 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Dunkerque and 25% for Amiens.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Dunkerque have failed to score in 44% of games; Amiens in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 56% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Dunkerque's recent games and 25% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Amiens tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Amiens in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dunkerque's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque and Amiens finished level at 0-0 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.02 xG and Amiens 1.09 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dunkerque fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Amiens landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.80 / defence 1.28 against Amiens attack 0.83 / defence 1.36, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 32% | Draw 32% | Amiens 36%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 38%, Amiens 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Amiens's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 0.88 PPG, Amiens 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dunkerque (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.