Dunkerque 0-1 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajaccio at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dunkerque vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Marcel-Tribut plays host to Dunkerque versus Ajaccio in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Dunkerque (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dunkerque have posted 2W 3D 3L at Stade Marcel-Tribut — 1.12 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ajaccio have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Ajaccio have posted 2W 3D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.29 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.29 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Dunkerque against 1.90 for Ajaccio. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Dunkerque goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Ajaccio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Dunkerque 47% | Ajaccio 20%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dunkerque 33% | Ajaccio 13%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.76 xG and Ajaccio 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.833 / defence 1.073 | Ajaccio attack 0.846 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 0.997. Data: 15 Dunkerque games / 15 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 29% | Draw 34% | Ajaccio 37%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Ajaccio 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Dunkerque's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajaccio are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajaccio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.67 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 38% | Ajaccio 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 29% | Draw 34% | Ajaccio 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 32% | xG Dunkerque 0.76 / Ajaccio 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.833 / def 1.073 | Ajaccio attack 0.846 / def 1.017 | league avg home 0.900 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Ajaccio xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Ajaccio kick off?
Dunkerque vs Ajaccio kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Ajaccio?
Dunkerque 0 - 1 Ajaccio.
Where is Dunkerque vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Ajaccio part of?
Dunkerque vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 29% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Dunkerque and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Ajaccio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dunkerque and Ajaccio in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Ajaccio (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dunkerque's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Ajaccio's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.85x) against Dunkerque's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
29%
3.47
34%
2.91
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.1%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
1.67
0.90
Ajaccio xG
3.47
29%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.15
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
17%
5.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.9 | 17.1 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.6%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Dunkerque and 0.90 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dunkerque come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 4D 7L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajaccio sit at 1.87 PPG from 15 outings (8W 4D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajaccio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Dunkerque's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajaccio have taken 1.29 points per game from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ajaccio's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dunkerque are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 1.13 scored and 0.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio in 20%.
Defensively: Ajaccio in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 8W 4D 3L in their last 15 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Ajaccio away?
Ajaccio's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 1.14 PPG; Ajaccio away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Dunkerque go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dunkerque have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ajaccio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Dunkerque
1
Draws
2
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Ajaccio?
From 6 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 3, Ajaccio have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2025, when Ajaccio 1-2 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Ajaccio?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dunkerque tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 29% (Dunkerque) and 29% (Ajaccio) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Dunkerque and 14% for Ajaccio.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Ajaccio in 43%; Dunkerque have failed to score in 43% of games; Ajaccio in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 29% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Dunkerque's recent games and 14% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 29% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajaccio edge out Dunkerque 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Dunkerque 0-1 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.76 xG and Ajaccio 0.90 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.83 / defence 1.07 against Ajaccio attack 0.85 / defence 1.02, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 29% | Draw 34% | Ajaccio 37%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 23% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 33%, Ajaccio 13%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajaccio's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Ajaccio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.