Dijon 1-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Guingamp travel to Stade Gaston-Gérard to take on Dijon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dijon have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stade Gaston-Gérard this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dijon 0.80 PPG, Guingamp 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dijon, 1 for Guingamp and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dijon trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Guingamp trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 53% versus Guingamp 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 53% | Guingamp 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.03 xG and Guingamp 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.810 / defence 1.019 | Guingamp attack 1.209 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.051. Guingamp have an above-average attack strength of 1.209 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Dijon games / 51 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 30% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 43%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Guingamp 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Dijon 50% | Guingamp 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 30% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Dijon 1.03 / Guingamp 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.810 / def 1.019 | Guingamp attack 1.209 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Guingamp xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Guingamp kick off?
Dijon vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Guingamp?
Dijon 1 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Dijon vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Guingamp part of?
Dijon vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 30% chance of winning, Guingamp a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dijon and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Guingamp?
Record (2 meetings): Dijon 0W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Dijon and Guingamp in?
Dijon (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dijon's attack rating (0.81) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
30%
3.37
28%
3.59
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.33
1.29
Guingamp xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
8%
12.32
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Dijon and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Dijon and 1.29 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 16W 12D 23L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 20W 17D 14L from 51 games, 1.51 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dijon on 1.18 PPG, Guingamp on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.44 PPG from 25 outings (10W 6D 9L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 9W 8D 8L from 25 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Dijon are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.37 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 16W 12D 23L in their last 51 games (1.18 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 20W 17D 14L in their last 51 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Guingamp away?
Dijon's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.44 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dijon and Guingamp runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dijon's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dijon
2
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 0, Guingamp have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Guingamp 2-0 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dijon see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 44%, Guingamp 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Dijon) and 44% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Dijon keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Dijon have failed to score in 32% of games; Guingamp in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Dijon's recent matches and 48% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Dijon's recent games and 44% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Guingamp tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dijon and Guingamp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon and Guingamp finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.03 xG and Guingamp 1.29 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Guingamp attack 1.21 / defence 1.07, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 30% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 43%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 53%, Guingamp 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.18 PPG, Guingamp 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.