Dijon 3-3 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Guingamp travel to Stade Gaston-Gérard to take on Dijon. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 April 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dijon have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Dijon's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stade Gaston-Gérard this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Guingamp are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dijon, 1 for Guingamp and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 2–3 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dijon trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Guingamp trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 47% versus Guingamp 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 47% | Guingamp 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.01 xG and Guingamp 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.913 / defence 1.162 | Guingamp attack 0.889 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 0.945 / away 1.027. Data: 34 Dijon games / 34 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 32% | Draw 33% | Guingamp 35%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Guingamp 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 30% | Guingamp 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Friday 22 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 32% | Draw 33% | Guingamp 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Dijon 1.01 / Guingamp 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.913 / def 1.162 | Guingamp attack 0.889 / def 1.166 | league avg home 0.945 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Guingamp xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Guingamp kick off?
Dijon vs Guingamp kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 22 April 2022 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Guingamp?
Dijon 3 - 3 Guingamp.
Where is Dijon vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Guingamp part of?
Dijon vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 32% chance of winning, Guingamp a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Dijon and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Guingamp?
Record (1 meetings): Dijon 0W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Dijon and Guingamp in?
Dijon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Guingamp (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dijon's attack rating (0.91) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
32%
3.10
33%
3.08
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.07
1.06
Guingamp xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.08
33%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Dijon and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Dijon and 1.06 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 12W 6D 16L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Guingamp's form line: 12W 12D 10L from 34 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dijon on 1.24 PPG, Guingamp on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.53 PPG from 17 outings (8W 2D 7L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 5W 6D 6L from 17 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Dijon are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.24 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 12W 6D 16L in their last 34 games (1.24 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 12W 12D 10L in their last 34 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Guingamp away?
Dijon's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.53 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Dijon or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Guingamp in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dijon and Guingamp runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dijon's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dijon
2
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 0, Guingamp have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Guingamp 2-0 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dijon see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Guingamp see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 41%, Guingamp 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Dijon) and 35% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Dijon keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Guingamp in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Dijon's recent matches and 41% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Dijon's recent games and 35% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dijon and Guingamp share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 35, as Dijon and Guingamp drew 3-3 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.01 xG and Guingamp 1.06 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Dijon beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Guingamp outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.91 / defence 1.16 against Guingamp attack 0.89 / defence 1.17, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 32% | Draw 33% | Guingamp 35%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 47%, Guingamp 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.24 PPG, Guingamp 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dijon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.