Dijon 1-0 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gaston-Gérard plays host to Dijon versus Grenoble in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 2 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Dijon (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Dijon at Stade Gaston-Gérard this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Grenoble have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Grenoble have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Dijon, 1.20 for Grenoble — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Dijon have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Grenoble in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Dijon 1W, Grenoble 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Dijon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dijon — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Grenoble — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 47% versus Grenoble 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dijon 43% | Grenoble 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.06 xG and Grenoble 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.940 / defence 1.063 | Grenoble attack 0.690 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 0.913. Data: 30 Dijon games / 30 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 44% | Draw 34% | Grenoble 22%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Grenoble 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Grenoble's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dijon are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.73 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 30% | Grenoble 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 44% | Draw 34% | Grenoble 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Dijon 1.06 / Grenoble 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.940 / def 1.063 | Grenoble attack 0.690 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.009 / away 0.913 • Poisson stance: Dijon (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Grenoble xG
33%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Grenoble kick off?
Dijon vs Grenoble kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Grenoble?
Dijon 1 - 0 Grenoble.
Where is Dijon vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Grenoble part of?
Dijon vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 44% chance of winning, Grenoble a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Dijon and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Grenoble?
Record (1 meetings): Dijon 1W | Draws 0 | Grenoble 0W.
What form are Dijon and Grenoble in?
Dijon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Grenoble (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dijon's attack rating (0.94) and Grenoble's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Grenoble's attack (0.69x) against Dijon's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.2%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
44%
2.29
34%
2.92
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Dijon xG
Total xG
1.73
0.67
Grenoble xG
2.29
44%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
8%
13.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.7 | 11.8 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 12.6 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Dijon and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Dijon and 0.67 for Grenoble, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 11W 5D 14L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Grenoble's form line: 9W 6D 15L from 30 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Dijon against 1.10 for Grenoble. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.53 PPG from 15 outings (7W 2D 6L).
On the road, Grenoble have gone 3W 3D 9L from 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dijon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dijon are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 0.77 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Grenoble in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Current Season
Grenoble
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 11W 5D 14L in their last 30 games (1.27 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 9W 6D 15L in their last 30 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Grenoble away?
Dijon's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.53 PPG; Grenoble away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Dijon or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Grenoble in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Grenoble — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Dijon
1
Draws
0
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Grenoble?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 3, Grenoble have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Dijon 1-0 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Grenoble?
Dijon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dijon see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 47%, Grenoble 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Dijon and 27% for Grenoble.
On the defensive side: Dijon keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Grenoble in 33%; Grenoble in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Dijon's recent matches and 27% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Dijon's recent games and 27% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Grenoble tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dijon edge out Grenoble 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Grenoble 1-0 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.06 xG and Grenoble 0.67 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.94 / defence 1.06 against Grenoble attack 0.69 / defence 1.12, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 44% | Draw 34% | Grenoble 22%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 43%, Grenoble 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Grenoble's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.27 PPG, Grenoble 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dijon win broke the near-deadlock. Dijon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.